Election Forecasts and Results

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This page contains links to all of my projects and analysis related to US election modeling and forecasting.

Current Links

2024 Republican Presidential Primaries and Caucuses Election Results

2024 Democratic Presidential Primaries and Caucuses Election Results

Election Forecasts

I typically publish an elections forecast for every major election cycle on major statewide and national races. Below are the links to the forecasts (and post-election analyses) from previous years.

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Related Analysis

These analyses provide insights as to how well my models did retrospectively and how they could compare to other election models and forecasts, such as RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.

2018 Competitive Analysis

Revisiting 2016: How well would my 2018 probabilistic model have performed in 2016?

Election Results and Forecasts Live Stream

I normally stream live results and analysis, along with a live forecast of the final outcome, at this page for major elections, with a schedule of when I intend to do them.

Past Results Portal

Here are some links to the results from past elections. Model results are added where applicable.