Senate Forecast

| President | Senate |

My Senate model is significantly less sophisticated than the one I have for president—I only look at a weighted polling average of the race. Moreover, my Senate forecast has a tendency to be off. The most accurate model that I ever had was my 2012 model, which correctly forecasted 31 of 33 races. This is because often times polls for Senate races tend to just be flat out wrong, so we’ll see how accurate this is at the end of the day.

So here are the results:

Democrats—51*

Republicans—49

*Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) caucus with the Democrats.

State-by-state breakdown

Projections

Battleground States Breakdown

Closest Races. A hard-fought battle for the Senate will come down to these six states:

Indiana (Bayh +1.0). The Democrats here recruited the popular former Governor and Senator Evan Bayh to come out of retirement and run for his old Senate seat following the retirement of Sen. Dan Coats (R). However, despite name recognition, Bayh has had trouble reestablishing himself in Indiana due to that he has spent the last six years as a Washington insider and lobbyist, and his voter registration in Indiana was even inactivated after election officials could not even confirm that Bayh still lived in Indiana. The last time the Democrats tried to convince a retired senator to run for his old Senate seat, former Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska lost to Deb Fischer in 2014 in a landslide. Nonetheless, Bayh still has a slight edge here, although it may prove difficult for him to pull off a win in a state that is expected to vote for Trump by a wide margin. Rep. Todd Young (R) could still well possibly win here.

Missouri (Blunt +0.7). Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is facing a tough challenge from Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) here, especially after Kander released a viral ad showing him loading an AR-15 while blindfolded. However, Republican super-PACs have unleashed a barrage of attack ads against Kander, tying him to Hillary Clinton, who is highly unpopular in this state that has been trending Republican, which puts Blunt with the edge going into the election. Nonetheless, Kander is essentially running his campaign as a Republican to attract conservative voters, but it might not be enough to put him over the edge this highly Republican state.

Nevada (Cortez Masto +0.4). Catherine Cortez Masto (D), the handpicked successor of outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, is barely over the water in the polls. However, it’s worth noting that polls here lean Republican by about 3 points, so it would not be surprising if Cortez Masto wins by about 3 points where the polls show the race in dead heat between Cortez Masto and Rep. Joe Heck (R), especially if the Clinton campaign is able to turn out the Latino vote.

New Hampshire (Hassan +0.1). Popular Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) is barely leading incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), but down-ballot voting could be a boost for Hassan here. Hillary Clinton rides high in the polls here, and could very well bring Hassan to victory.

North Carolina (Burr +1.8). Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) is barely withstanding a challenge from Deborah Ross (D) in a state that is trending Democratic, and where Hillary Clinton is leading in the polls. A down-ballot effect could very well possibly cost Burr the election despite a slight advantage in the polls going into Election Day.

Pennsylvania (McGinty +2.4). Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) slightly trails challenger Katie McGinty (D) here following a wave of attack ads painting Toomey as the son of Wall Street. However, despite running a strong campaign, Toomey lags in a state where Donald Trump is trailing Hillary Clinton by a clear margin, and it will be difficult for Toomey to make up for that on Election Day.