2018 Governors Forecast
| Senate | Governors | Results |
Historically, my governors model performs with a similar accuracy rate as my Senate model, usually around 90 percent accuracy. However, currently there is not enough data to give a good estimate on key races in the 2018 model.
State-by-state breakdown
Predictions
| Race | Democrat | Republican | 2018-OLS Expected | 2018-OLS Probability | 2018-LAD Expected | 2018-LAD Probability | 2012 Spread | 2018-M Spread | Prediction |
| Alabama | Walt Maddox | Kay Ivey | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |
| Alaska | Mark Begich |
Mike Dunleavy | -- | -- | -- | -- | Dunleavy +3.9 | Dunleavy +7 | Leans R |
| Arizona | David Garcia | Doug Ducey | Ducey +14.1 | >99.9% R | Ducey +14.8 | >99.9% R | Ducey +14.2 | Ducey +14 | Safe R |
| Arkansas | Jared Henderson | Asa Hutchinson | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |
| California | Gavin Newsom | John Cox | -- | -- | -- | -- | Newsom +16.0 | Newsom +14 | Safe D |
| Colorado | Jared Polis | Walker Stapleton | -- | -- | -- | -- | Polis +6.6 | Polis +7 | Likely D |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | Bob Stefanowski | Lamont +3.8 | 62.3% D | Lamont +6.7 | 74.7% D | Lamont +4.6 | Lamont +7 | Leans D |
| Florida | Andrew Gillum | Ron DeSantis | Gillum +3.2 | 76.2% D | Gillum +4.3 | 88.3% D | Gillum +3.4 | Gillum +3 | Leans D |
| Georgia | Stacey Abrams | Brian Kemp | Kemp +0.1 | 51.6% R | Kemp +0.9 | 64.6% R | Kemp +0.7 | Kemp +1 | Leans R |
| Hawaii | David Ige | Andria Tupola | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe D |
| Idaho | Paulette Jordan | Brad Little | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |
| Illinois | J. B. Pritzker | Bruce Rauner | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Likely D |
| Iowa | Fred Hubbell | Kim Reynolds | -- | -- | -- | -- | Hubbell +0.4 | Hubbell +1 | Leans D |
| Kansas | Laura KellyGreg Orman (I) | Kris Kobach | -- | -- | -- | -- | Kobach +1.0 | Kobach +1 | Leans R |
| Maine | Janet Mills | Shawn Moody | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Likely D |
| Maryland | Ben Jealous | Larry Hogan | -- | -- | -- | -- | Hogan +18.5 | Hogan +17 | Safe R |
| Massachusetts | Jay Gonzalez | Charlie Baker | -- | -- | -- | -- | Baker +39.4 | Baker +41 | Safe R |
| Michigan | Gretchen Whitmer | Bill Schuette | Whitmer +8.1 | 94.1% D | Whitmer +8.4 | 95.3% D | Whitmer +9.5 | Whitmer +9 | Likely D |
| Minnesota | Tim Walz | Jeff Johnson | -- | -- | -- | -- | Walz +8.9 | Walz +9 | Likely D |
| Nebraska | Bob Krist | Pete Ricketts | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |
| Nevada | Steve Sisolak | Adam Laxalt | Sisolak +1.5 | 65.0% D | Sisolak +2.3 | 72.2% D | Sisolak +2.2 | Sisolak +2 | Leans D |
| New Hampshire | Molly Kelly | Chris Sununu | -- | -- | -- | -- | Sununu +6.9 | Sununu +8 | Likely R |
| New Mexico | Michelle Lujan Grisham | Steve Pearce | -- | -- | -- | -- | Grisham +7.0 | Grisham +7 | Likely D |
| New York | Andrew Cuomo | Marcus Molinaro | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe D |
| Ohio | Richard Cordray | Mike DeWine | -- | -- | -- | -- | Cordray +4.1 | Cordray +2 | Leans D |
| Oklahoma | Drew Edmondson | Kevin Stitt | -- | -- | -- | -- | Stitt +5.1 | Stitt +3 | Leans R |
| Oregon | Kate Brown | Knute Buehler | -- | -- | -- | -- | Brown +4.0 | Brown +5 | Leans D |
| Pennsylvania | Tom Wolf | Scott Wagner | -- | -- | -- | -- | Wolf +22.6 | Wolf +21 | Safe D |
| Rhode Island | Gina Raimondo | Allan Fung | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Likely D |
| South Carolina | James Smith | Henry McMaster | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |
| South Dakota | Billie Sutton | Kristi Noem | -- | -- | -- | -- | Noem +1.5 | Noem +2 | Leans R |
| Tennessee | Karl Dean | Bill Lee | Lee +11.9 | 96.0% R | Lee +10.2 | 96.9% R | Lee +14.9 | Lee +16 | Safe R |
| Texas | Lupe Valdez | Greg Abbott | -- | -- | -- | -- | Abbott +17.4 | Abbott +18 | Safe R |
| Vermont | Christine Hallquist | Phil Scott | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |
| Wisconsin | Tony Evers | Scott Walker | -- | -- | -- | -- | Evers +3.1 | Evers +4 | Leans D |
| Wyoming | Mary Throne | Mark Gordon | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Safe R |