The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2018.
Overall, we are not expecting to see very many close gubernatorial elections this year. However, we are expecting the GOP to gain one governorship in Montana, where Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) is favored to replace term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D).
| 23 Democrats | Republicans 27 |
Montana (Leans R). Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) is running to replace term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D), to whom Gianforte lost in 2016. Although Montana has been voting Republican at the presidential level consistently since 1996, the last time a Republican won a gubernatorial race here was in 2000. Even in 2016, Bullock was reelected by 3.9 points despite President Trump carrying the state by over 20. This trend is expected to break this year, as Gianforte is favored to win. However, he is not without controversy - Gianforte was arrested for body-slamming a reporter during a 2017 Congressional special election to fill the seat of Ryan Zinke (R), who was confirmed as Secretary of the Interior. Gianforte ended up winning that race.
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!
| Candidate | Party |
| John Carney* | DEM |
| Julianne Murray | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Holcomb* | GOP |
| Woody Myers | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Parson* | GOP |
| Nicole Galloway | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Gianforte | GOP |
| Mike Cooney | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Gianforte +6.1 | -- |
| 2018-M | Gianforte +3 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Gianforte +7.7 | Gianforte 91.5% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Gianforte 88.6% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Sununu* | GOP |
| Dan Feltes | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Sununu +22.6 | -- |
| 2018-M | Sununu +24 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Sununu +20.7 | Sununu 99.4% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Sununu >99.9% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Roy Cooper* | DEM |
| Dan Forest | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Cooper +12.1 | -- |
| 2018-M | Cooper +16 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Cooper +11.4 | Cooper 94.4% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Cooper 99.7% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Doug Burgum* | GOP |
| Shelley Lenz | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Spencer Cox | GOP |
| Chris Peterson | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Phil Scott* | GOP |
| David Zuckerman | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jay Inslee* | DEM |
| Loren Culp | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Justice* | GOP |
| Ben Salango | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |