2020 Election Forecast

| President | Senate | Governors | Results |

The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2018.

We expect to see a close race for the Senate, with key races in Maine and North Carolina likely to determine whether the Republicans can retain their Senate majority. The Democrats need to flip 3 seats to reach a tie, or 4 seats to tie given that Doug Jones (D) is expected to lose his seat in Alabama. Given the close nature of this race, it's possible that we'll see a 50-50 split in the Senate, which means whoever is elected Vice President breaks a tie to form a majority.

Note that these number account for the fact that Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) caucus with the Democrats.

These estimates above only show the expected outcome in every state. However, we can put these state-by-state estimates together into an overall simulation to see what the possible outcomes are. The numbers used in this simulation are from the results of the 2018-OLS model. Here are the results:

The median result is the Democrats winning 51-49.

The most likely result is the Democrats winning 52-48.

However, there is a possibility that polls have been underestimating Republican support in key red state Senate races, in a way similar to how polls underestimated Trump in 2016. If that is true, then these would be the simulated results:

The median result is the Republicans winning 51-49.

The most likely result is the Republicans winning 51-49.

Hence, who has the upper hand in the Senate this year really depends on polling error, particularly in the most likely tipping point states of Iowa and North Carolina. The Democrats are likely to win if there are neutral polling errors, while the Republicans are likely to win if the polls systematically underestimate GOP support.

Addendum: Georgia Senate runoffs

This section, along with the forecasts for the Georgia runoffs, are the only portions changed after the November election. The remaining analysis remains the same. Georgia faces a double-barrel runoff election this year that will determine control of the Senate. The regularly scheduled Senate race went to a runoff after the incumbent freshman Republican, David Perdue, failed to clear a majority of the vote, while a special election is also being held for the seat of Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), who retired due to health reasons. The special election headed to a runoff due to how Georgia holds its special elections in a jungle primary, with the appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler facing Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. The 2018-OLS model indicates that the Republican incumbents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, have about a 57% chance of each winning their races in the Georgia runoffs. Polls this year have been for the most part accurate for Georgia this election cycle. Which side can pull out the win depends on turnout, which has been abnormally high this year for a runoff. There have already been indications that the conventional wisdom that turnout patterns in a runoff will strongly favor the Republicans may not hold up this year. The Democrats must flip both seats to win control of the Senate, which the models do not indicate as likely. Hence, the GOP is favored to retain control of the Senate, but the Democrats could win if this year's turnout pattern proves favorable to them. Among these two races, the fundamentals suggest that it's more likely that Perdue will outperform Loeffler given his advantage as a previously elected incumbent and given that Loeffler drew a strong jungle primary challenge from Rep. Doug Collins (R). For Jon Ossoff (D) to win against Perdue, he would need to run stronger in the Atlanta metro area, where he underperformed former Vice President Joe Biden, who won the state due to his strong performance around Atlanta. If Perdue can hold Ossoff from getting the same margins as Biden around Atlanta, which the November outcome suggests is likely, then the Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Analysis

Alabama (Likely R). Incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D) is running for reelection after pulling an upset victory in a 2017 special election to fill the seat vacated by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R). Jones won after former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) had a scandal regarding allegations of improper conduct with minors, which allowed Jones to pull off an upset of 1.5 points. After being ousted by Trump after the 2018 midterms, Sessions sought to regain his former Senate seat but lost in the primary to former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) after President Trump relentlessly attacked Sessions during the primary. Tuberville does not have the same kind of baggage that Moore did, and in a presidential year, it's unlikely that Jones will pull off the same kind of upset with Trump at the top of the ticket in ruby-red Alabama.

Alaska (Likely R). Freshman incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is seeking reelection against independent candidate Al Gross. Gross is running with the nomination of the Democratic Party in Alaska, and in a state that is well-known for being conservative with a libertarian twist, Gross could be a viable candidate. However, Sullivan remains favored to win reelection.

Arizona (Leans D). Appointed incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) is running to serve out the remainder of the late Sen. John McCain's (R) term. McSally was appointed upon the resignation of Jon Kyl (R), the former GOP Senate Whip who was originally appointed to the McCain seat, after McSally lost to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) in the 2018 midterms for the state's other Senate seat. McSally's opponent is former astronaut Mark Kelly (D), the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), who narrowly survived an assassination attempt in 2011. Both McSally and Kelly have service credentials - McSally as the first woman US Air Force pilot in combat, and Kelly as a US Navy captain and a space shuttle commander. Kelly has enjoyed a fundraising advantage and a steady polling lead throughout this race, and he is the favorite to flip this Senate seat. Either way, this seat will be back up for reelection in the 2022 midterms.

Colorado (Likely D). Freshman incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is running for reelection against popular former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). Hickenlooper is a well-known and well-liked candidate in Colorado, which has been shifting to the left since Gardner's victory in 2014 after his opponent, then-Sen. Mark Udall (D) ran a flawed campaign. The presidential election is likely to bolster Democratic turnout in the state, and Hickenlooper is expected to perform well among moderate voters. Overall, Hickenlooper is favored to defeat Gardner's reelection bid.

Georgia (Leans R). Sen. David Perdue, another freshman GOP incumbent, is running for reelection against Democrat Jon Ossoff, who nearly won a suburban Atlanta House seat in 2017 in one of the most expensive House races in US history. In a presidential year, Perdue is expected to perform well given the state's Republican lean, and he is also helped by the fact that Georgia law requires the winner to clear 50 percent of the vote; otherwise, the election goes to a runoff, where turnout patterns tend to favor Republicans.

Georgia Special (Leans R). Appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) is running for reelection in a jungle primary against a wide field of candidates. Loeffler was appointed following the resignation of Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) due to health issues. Loeffler is among the wealthiest Senators, if not the wealthiest Senator, to serve in US history, and her campaign has been bogged down by allegations of insider trading. Loeffler's opponents in the jungle primary include Rep. Doug Collins (R), who is one of President Trump's fiercest defenders in the House, Raphael Warnock (D), pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, and Matt Lieberman (D), son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT). This race is almost certain to go to a runoff, and recent polling suggests that Warnock is likely to advance against either Loeffler or Collins. Democratic turnout will likely be down in the very probable runoff.

Iowa (Leans R). Freshman incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is seeking reelection against businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D). Ernst was first elected in 2014 after running a notable ad about her castrating pigs on a farm in her childhood and how she could apply that in Washington. However, Ernst's popularity is suffering for her support of President Trump's trade war with China, which has affected the bottom line of farmers throughout the state who make a living by exporting their crop. The Democrats have struggled to connect to Iowa voters in recent years due to their national shift leftward on social issues that has alienated rural voters, but Democrats did manage to flip two House seats in the state in the 2018 midterms. Greenfield is also not a very well known candidate, but has the support of the Democratic establishment. Incumbency and Iowa's red lean give Ernst an advantage in reelection.

Maine (Leans D). Four-term Sen. Susan Collins (R) has had a history of being able to outperform traditional Republican candidates in the state by appealing to moderate voters with her middle-of-the-road stances on the issues. However, her vote to confirm now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh and her votes to acquit President Trump in the impeachment trial have outraged liberals in her state, fueling fundraising numbers for her opponent, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon (D). Maine is a must-win state if the Democrats hope to be able to win control of the Senate. Gideon has enjoyed an early lead in polling, but there remain a high fraction of undecided voters, and that means uncertainty. This race is far from over, and it can easily go either way.

Montana (Leans R). Freshman incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R) is running for reelection against incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who is term-limited. Despite voting consistently Republican since 1996, Montana remains competitive at the local level, where Democrats hold one Senate seat and the governorship. Daines is facing a stiff challenge due to Bullock's popularity in the state and Bullock's advantage of also being an incumbent statewide officeholder. With President Trump at the top of the ticket expected to carry Montana, Daines is expected to get a boost downballot. Bullock is relying on ticket-splitting voters for him to win here, in a similar manner to his 2016 reelection against now-Rep. Greg Gianforte (R). Daines remains a narrow favorite, but Bullock could realistically pull off a win.

North Carolina (Leans D). Sen. Thom Tillis, yet another freshman GOP incumbent, is seeking reelection. His challenger is former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D). North Carolina is considered a must-win state for the Democrats to have a shot at winning back control of the Senate. Polling suggest that there are vulnerabilities for Tillis as Republicans in the state are not completely behind his candidacy, allowing Cunningham to have a lead in the polls. However, this could also suggest that Tillis has more room to grow his support from now until the election, similar to how undecided voters swung decisively in his favor in his 2014 win against then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D), who had consistently enjoyed a narrow lead in the polls. Curiously, Cunningham maintained a polling lead despite revelations of an affair. However, Cunningham's current polling lead is well within the margin of error, and Tillis could very reasonably win reelection.

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