2021 Election Forecast

| Governors | Results |

This year, there are three off-year gubernatorial elections in several Democratic-held seats, two of which are expected to be contested, including a regularly-scheduled race in Virginia and a recall election in California. The California recall election is scheduled for September 14, while New Jersey and Virginia will hold elections on November 2.

The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2020.

The outcome of these elections will be covered and modelled election night via Twitch stream and an interactive web app, both linked here. There will be a Twitch stream for the California recall on September 14 at 11:00 PM EDT (8:00 PM PDT), and for New Jersey and Virginia on November 2 at 7:00 PM EDT.

So here are this year's ratings:

Analysis

California Recall (Likely D). This year, GOP-aligned activists managed to place incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on the ballot following a recall petition emphasizing Newsom's handling of the coronavirus pandemic and painting Democratic policies as ineffective at solving California's growing list of problems. Newsom added fuel to the recall effort following his 2020 attendance of a French Laundry party that violated his own administration's coronavirus restrictions. Two questions appear on the ballot - the first asks whether or not Newsom should be removed from office, and the second asks in the event that a majority of voters choose to remove Newsom, who should succeed him. Despite Democratic resistance to the recall effort and the Golden State's deep blue partisan lean, it is not a slam dunk for Newsom and the Democratic Party, and polling shows significantly higher enthusiasm among Republicans than Democrats. By state law, all voters will receive a mail-in ballot, which would likely boost turnout for unenthused Democratic voters. Dozens of candidates have qualified to be listed on the second question. Major replacement candidates include conservative radio host Larry Elder (R) and YouTuber Kevin Paffrath (D). Concerns over GOP turnout has led to the state Republican Party and major GOP officeholders in the state to abstain from endorsing a single candidate, while the Democratic Party has dissuaded well-known Democratic candidates from running as a replacement to consolidate support for the embattled Newsom. Many comparisons have been drawn between Newsom and former Gov. Gray Davis (D), who was successfully recalled in 2003 and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). However, unlike 2003, Newsom has not drawn a major public official as a Democratic challenger, and California is significantly more Democratic today than in 2003. Current polls suggest that Newsom has been accumulating a lead on the first question, while on the second question, Elder holds a substantial lead over Paffrath and is likely to win if the election is decided on the second ballot. If Newsom manages to prevail on the first question, he will still be up for reelection next November. Overall, Newsom is favored to retain his office given the state's deep blue partisan lean and universal voting that is likely to boost Democratic turnout, but it is still Newsom's race to lose if the turnout gap is sufficiently in favor of the GOP.

New Jersey (Likely D). Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is expected to prevail in his reelection campaign against former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R). Murphy has maintained a healthy approval rating throughout his governorship and has been well-regarded for the handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, some sparse polls have shown this race in the single digits following a decline in support for the Democratic Party nationwide, and Ciattarelli has managed a campaign to focus on local issues such as taxes and education, but the race remains Murphy's to lose. If reelected, Murphy would be the first Democrat to win reelection as Governor of New Jersey since then-Gov. Brendan Byrne (D) in 1977.

Virginia (Leans R). Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) is running for reelection due to state law that prevents the Governor from serving more than one consecutive term, which had term-limited McAuliffe in 2017 and is preventing incumbent Gov. Ralph Northam (D) from seeking reelection. McAuliffe, a tested establishment moderate Democrat whose positions have shifted left with his party over the years, faces businessman Glenn Youngkin (R). McAuliffe has positioned himself as an experienced official who would push a bold progressive agenda, while Youngkin is running as a political outsider who would bring change to Richmond. Polls have indicated that McAuliffe started off the race with an advantage but Youngkin surged to a slight lead in a state that is becoming more reliably Democratic, though Virginia gubernatorial races are also known for being a bellwether after a presidential election. While McAuliffe has attempted to nationalize the race and portray Youngkin as Trump in khakis, Youngkin has managed to run a campaign on local issues, such as taxes, education, and the economy, to woo suburban voters, while emphasizing the Democrats' stances on cultural issues to drive turnout among rural voters that have steadily shifted Republican in Virginia and painting the Democrats as too far left for Virginia. Polling suggests that strategy may be working as polls have shown a double-digit swing towards Youngkin from last year's presidential race in northern Virginia suburbs and mostly rural areas west of I-95. Youngkin could feasibly pull an upset if he can bring back traditionally Republican suburban voters in northern Virginia to the GOP. This race will be the first major test of whether the shift of suburban voters from the Republicans to the Democrats during the Trump years will be a lasting one, and whether Virginia is a blue state or a purple state. Despite Virginia's blue lean and McAuliffe's previous incumbency, Youngkin has clear momentum and an edge in this race with a clear path to victory that runs through Virginia's suburbs, but McAuliffe can still defy the polls to prove that Virginia is definitively a blue state.

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