Midterm gubernatorial races tend to have an element of surprise, especially in a poor economy where both voter frustration and partisanship are high. Similar to the Senate, many Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in swing or light blue states that they won in 2018, while retiring Republicans in the Northeast allow some potential Democratic pickups. Overall, I missed four races in 2018, and I expect that number to higher this year due to the more volatile environment and less polling data.
The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2020.
The outcome of these elections will be covered and modelled election night via Twitch stream and an interactive web app, both linked here, on November 8 at 6:00 PM EST.
So here are this year's ratings:
21 Democrats
Republicans 29
11
3
7
4
3
22
|
For gubernatorial races, approval ratings of the local governor matters significantly more than national factors such as the generic ballot or presidential approval ratings, which explains the divergence between this map and the national political map as typically seen in a presidential election. This map also diverges quite significantly from other ratings published by traditional election handicappers as these ratings more strongly emphasize voter approval of incumbents over partisan political geography.
Analysis
Arizona (Leans R). With GOP incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey term-limited, the Grand Canyon State is seeing an open gubernatorial race between Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and former television news anchor Kari Lake (R). As the incumbent Secretary of State, Hobbs has made election integrity a top issue and cited her role in certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election in Arizona. Meanwhile, Lake is running a staunchly pro-Trump campaign and has advocated for President Trump's criticism of the 2020 presidential election process. With both candidates running to their political base, it remains an open question as to how crucial swing voters will vote this November, but Lake's media experience has been an asset for communicating to voters and Lake enters November with a polling edge.
California (Safe D). Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) seeks reelection after surviving a recall effort in 2021 after branding the leading challenger as a far-right extremist. However, his political survival last year did not solve California's many social and economic problems, and voter dissatisfaction remains high in state that has seen many local incumbents kicked out of office, either in reelection races or a recall. While Gov. Newsom remains a favorite, there's a very small chance that voters will decide that it's time for change at the state level.
Colorado (Safe D). Incumbent Gov. Jared Polis (D) is running for reelection in a medium blue state. While Gov. Polis benefits from solid approval ratings, this is an anti-Democratic wave year in a state that is about as blue as Virginia, and there remains a possibility of an upset from University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl (R).
Connecticut (Likely D). Incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is seeking reelection in a rematch against businessman Bob Stefanowski (R). Despite its status as a solid blue state, The Constitution State has a history of close elections, and 2018 was no exception when Stefanowski almost pulled off an upset against Lamont. Gov. Lamont started his term as one of the most unpopular governors in the country, and that did not change until 2020, when Lamont was regarded well for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. While Gov. Lamont's approval ratings have recovered, it remains to be seen whether Lamont can outrun the national headwinds and hold off a challenge from Stefanowski. However, Lamont retains a solid polling lead over Stefanowski.
Florida (Safe R). Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (D) is running reelection against Rep. Charlie Crist (D), a former Republican governor of this state. Despite winning his race very narrowly in 2018 in an upset, Gov. DeSantis has governed the state from the right wing in a way that has gained him national attention and endeared him to the Trump faction of the GOP. Particularly, Gov. DeSantis has built his political image by defying left-wing stances on social and cultural issues championed by national Democrats and many multinational corporations, such as his feud with Disney over classroom culture wars and his emphasis on economic growth and personal freedom during the coronavirus pandemic. While Florida has a history of voting in favor of liberal economic policies in the past, it is a staunchly conservative state when it comes to social and cultural issues. The heat of the culture wars in recent years, fanned by individuals such as Gov. DeSantis, alongside the shift of support among voters concerned about the economy from Democrats to Republicans, has shifted Florida to the right in recent years in a manner that has made the perennial battleground state out of reach for statewide Democrats. Gov. DeSantis is expected to hold the Trump coalition of rural and exurban voters in the state while continuing to make inroads in Democratic South Florida. It is unlikely that Rep. Crist can win over crossover support that he won in his first gubernatorial race 16 years ago to win statewide, and Gov. DeSantis is expected to win this race by the largest statewide margin in a gubernatorial race since the 7 point margin set by Crist in 2006.
Georgia (Likely R). Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is running for reelection in a rematch against former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D). Gov. Kemp emerges from a fractured state GOP following his refusal to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia in favor of President Trump. However, it is unlikely that this would ultimately impact Republicans, who overwhelmingly dislike Abrams and believe that Abrams would enact far-left policies if elected. Since her loss and subsequent refusal concede the 2018 gubernatorial race to Kemp with claims that Kemp had rigged the election, Abrams has spent the last 4 years boosting Democratic presence in the traditionally red state, and national Democrats have credited President Biden's win and the subsequent election of two Democratic U.S. Senators to her efforts. However, Gov. Kemp holds strong crossover appeal to voters concerned about the state of the economy and is favored to win reelection against Abrams.
Illinois (Likely D). Incumbent Gov. J. B. Pritzker (D) is running for reelection against state Sen. Darren Bailey (R). One has to go back to the 1990s to find a Governor of Illinois who was neither voted out of office or imprisoned for corruption, and one has to go back further to the 1950s to find such an elected Democratic governor. Gov. Pritzker is hoping to break that historical trend, so much so that Pritzker funneled tens of millions to buoy the right-wing candidacy of state Sen. Darren Bailey (R), the candidate that Gov. Pritzker thought would be an easier opponent in the general election. Bailey is running to drive up vote margins from outside Chicago-land, but Illinois is a state where a Republican must do well in the moderate Chicago suburbs to win statewide.
Kansas (Leans R). Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is running for reelection against state Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R). Despite Kansas being a solid red state, Gov. Kelly managed to prevail in a blue wave year in a state that saw years of unpopular Republican policies and a right-wing candidate. However, the headwinds are working against Gov. Kelly this year despite her healthy approval ratings, as Gov. Kelly is running against a well-regarded statewide GOP incumbent in a red state in a red wave year. All of these factors compound to make Gov. Kelly the underdog in this race, but there remains a decent chance that suburban voters in eastern Kansas will give Gov. Kelly the needed margins to win reelection.
Maine (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D) is running for reelection against predecessor, former Gov. Paul LePage (R). Despite its history of voting for Democratic candidates at the presidential level, Maine is a highly swingy state that reacts strongly to the national environment, and Democrats have fared worse in recent years in rural northern Maine. Gov. Mills also suffers from mediocre approval ratings, but former Gov. LePage has drawn criticism for his history of controversial remarks. Maine elections have traditionally been hard to predict due to sparse polling and a history of upset outcomes, and that certainly applies to the gubernatorial race this year.
Michigan (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is seeking reelection this year against former political commentator Tudor Dixon (R). Since her election to as the chief executive of the state, Gov. Whitmer has drawn a national profile, particularly over her administration's response to the coronavirus pandemic that split along partisan lines. Gov. Whitmer holds a decent approval rating in the state, which she will need in order to run against this year's political environment. Gov. Whitmer enters the election with a polling lead and support from suburban voters, but Dixon may still be able to ride anti-establishment sentiment to flip the governor's mansion.
Minnesota (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) is running for reelection against former state Sen. Scott Jenson (R). Despite a healthy approval ratings, Walz has tended to poll below 50 percent on his reelection bid, which is a sign of trouble for an incumbent against a relatively unknown challenger. Heading into the election, Gov. Walz maintains a slight polling lead among the sparse polls that have been conducted, though there remains a chance that Jenson can pull an upset by continuing to make inroads among traditional Democratic rural and Iron Range voters and flip enough suburban voters to pull an upset.
Nevada (Leans R). Incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is running for reelection against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R). Gov. Sisolak is moderate Democrat and his approval ratings are not too shabby, but being an incumbent in a swing state with a poor economy, Gov. Sisolak faces a challenge to win reelection. Rampant inflation, the coronavirus pandemic, and Gov. Sisolak's strict pandemic restrictions have ravaged Nevada's tourism-dependent economy, and the economy is the dominant issue among the Silver State's swing voters, especially working class Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, GOP nominee Joe Lombardo has a moderate reputation and a history of winning elections in Democratic-leaning Clark County. Lombardo enters the election with a polling lead, though Nevada is a state with a history of polling error, and there's a good chance that Gov. Sisolak can defy the polls and win.
New Mexico (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is seeking reelection against former meteorologist Mark Ronchetti (R). Gov. Lujan Grisham suffers from mediocre approval ratings, and Ronchetti outperformed expectations in his 2020 Senate campaign against now-Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D). In a light blue state in a red wave year, these factors combine to form a competitive race to watch. However, Gov. Lujan Grisham enters the election with a polling lead, giving her a slight edge.
New York (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is seeking her first full term as Governor of New York following the resignation of her predecessor, disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). With statewide Democrats reeling from the downfall of Cuomo at the hands of a state Attorney General who sought his office, the arrest of Hochul's appointed lieutenant on corruption charges, and an attempt to gerrymander the state that was ruled illegal by a Democratic majority on the state's highest court, Gov. Hochul is hoping to hit the reset button for Democrats throughout the state. Despite her rise to politics as a moderate from western New York, Gov. Hochul rapidly tacked to the left following her ascendancy, though she has resisted calls from progressives to go even further left. Her opponent, Congressman Lee Zeldin (R) from Long Island, has sought to capture voter discontent around key issues such as the economy, inflation, taxes, and crime, all of which are particularly salient in New York, and portraying unchecked Democratic rule in the state as the source of many of the state's problems. Rep. Zeldin is a bit more conservative than a candidate that has potential to defeat a Democratic statewide incumbent in the Empire State, but Zeldin has outperformed typical GOP margins in the past. Given the Democrats' current situation in the state, this has the potential to be a competitive race, but Gov. Hochul enters the home stretch with a polling lead.
Oregon (Leans D). With the Democratic incumbent term-limited, this race features former state Democratic House Leader Tina Kotek against former state Republican House Leader Christine Drazan. Despite its history of being a blue state, Oregon consistently sees close gubernatorial elections. Furthermore, the Democratic incumbent Kate Brown suffers from poor approval ratings, and Oregon voters express high levels of dissatisfaction towards the governing statewide Democrats, especially regarding key issues such as homelessness and crime. Democrats in Oregon are also some of the most ideologically divided in the country, where Portland Democrats pride themselves as strong far-left progressives while suburban Democrats around Portland and in other areas of the state are far more moderate. This division manifested in the third-party candidacy of state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a moderate Democrat, who has promised to run in between Portland progressives and the rural conservatives that dominate the state GOP. With a three-way race, this could be one of the most interesting races for this year and for Oregon politics, with implications on the future of the left-wing movement both in the state and nationwide. Polls have shown that a wide range of results are possible, but more recent polls suggest there is a good chance that Democratic voters come home to Kotek and carry her across the finish line.
Pennsylvania (Likely D). State Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) is running against state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) as the Democratic incumbent is term-limited. Shapiro has a track record of outperforming Democrats in federal races in the Keystone State and is well-known to voters, while Mastriano is a highly controversial figure who supported far-right ideologies and efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania. With Shapiro's electoral history and Mastriano's political baggage, Shapiro is the narrow favorite to win this race, but the anti-Democratic environment leaves open the possibility of an upset.
Rhode Island (Leans D). Ascending to the governor's mansion after then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) was selected for President Biden's cabinet, incumbent Gov. Dan McKee (D) is seeking a full term against businesswoman Ashley Kalus (R). Gov. McKee suffers some some of the lowest approval ratings of any incumbent governor and faces criticism over corruption allegations over an education consulting contract, which means there's a chance of an upset in this race. However, with an untested candidate in Kalus and the Ocean State's deep blue partisan lean, Gov. McKee remains the favorite to win.
Wisconsin (Leans R). Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) is running for reelection against businessman Tim Michels (R). Although Evers has a split approval rating, he has managed to outperform Biden's approval ratings in the Badger State, but that is unlikely to be sufficient by itself. Evers has faced Republican criticism over key issues, such as the economy, the coronavirus pandemic, and crime, and will face an uphill battle to stay ahead of the sagging national environment for Democrats. Gov. Evers enters the election as a slight underdog, but it remains possible that he can overcome his polling deficit by appealing to moderate suburban voters.
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