2022 Election Forecast

| Senate | Governors | House | Results |

The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2020.

The Democrats face an uphill battle to maintain control of either chamber of Congress, especially given their 50-50 bare majority in the US Senate. Despite the fact that the Republicans face more exposure this cycle, the Democrats are playing defense in multiple key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire. Given the persistently poor economic conditions nationwide and the fact that President Biden has the lowest first-term approval ratings recorded in modern political history (yes, even lower than Trump), the Democrats have a long shot at keeping all of these seats or picking up Pennsylvania, the only key GOP-held battleground. The race for the Senate remains the Republicans to lose, but it is possible that poor candidate selection may cost them the majority in a manner similar to what happened in 2010 or 2012. However, in polarized times, candidate quality matters less than partisan affiliation as compared to years prior. After years of disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, a battered economy, high inflation, and a rising fear of crime, voter frustration and anger are at an unprecedented high. Overall, the fundamentals indicate that we're likely headed for a red wave, one that is even larger than the blue wave of 2018.

The outcome of these elections will be covered and modelled on election night via Twitch stream and an interactive web app, both linked here, on November 8 at 6:00 PM EST.

Note that these numbers account for the fact that Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) caucus with the Democrats.

These estimates above only show the expected outcome in every state. However, we can put these state-by-state estimates together into an overall simulation to see what the possible outcomes are. The numbers used in this simulation are from the results of the 2020-NN-M model. Here are the results:

The median result is the Republicans winning 52-48.

The most likely result is the Republicans winning 53-47.

An 80% confidence interval ranges from Republicans winning 55-45 to Democrats winning 52-48.

History

Georgia Runoff (December 6)

Key Races

Alaska (Safe R). Moderate GOP incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski is running for reelection in Alaska's new jungle-primary and ranked-choice runoff election rules. Murkowski faces a right-wing challenge from Trump-backed former Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka (R). Sen. Murkowski drew the wrath of President Trump for voting in favor of impeachment following the January 6, 2021 storming of the US Capitol and has one of the most moderate voting records for a Senate Republican. First coming to the Senate following a nepotistic appointment from her father, then-Gov. Frank Murkowski (R), Sen. Murkowski survived reelection in 2010 despite losing the GOP primary after staging a write-in campaign. Given the state's new voting rules, Murkowski has less to fear from a right-wing challenger and may win by relying on Democratic-leaning voters to rank her above Tshibaka, which gives Murkowski the odds-on favorite to win reelection.

Arizona (Leans D). Incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is seeking reelection to a full term in the Senate after winning a special election in 2020 to serve out the rest of the term of the late Sen. John McCain (R). Sen. Kelly faces a challenge from businessman and political newcomer Blake Masters (R), who emerged from a crowded GOP primary. In recent years, Arizona has become a marginal state where Democrats have managed to squeeze out victories, and was the second closest state in the 2020 presidential election by popular vote margin. As with other Democratic incumbents in battleground states, Sen. Kelly faces a challenging political environment in the midst of a lackluster economic situation. On the other hand, GOP candidate Blake Masters hails from a background in the tech industry and is an untested political newcomer with unconventional political views and strategies. Given the headwinds this year against the Democrats, the fundamentals of the race favor Masters, but Sen. Kelly heads into the November with a very narrow polling lead. There remains a very good chance of an upset, especially if the fundamentals prevail and late undecided voters upset about the economy break for Masters, and this is the race the models are most likely to be wrong about. This race was initially rated as Leans R based on the fundamentals, and it should be no surprise if the polls are wrong and the fundamentals are right.

Colorado (Likely D). Incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for reelection against businessman Joe O'Dea (R). Fresh off a lackluster presidential campaign two years ago, Sen. Bennet is running for a third term in a formerly swingy light blue state. Sen. Bennet has never won over 50 percent of the vote in any previous Senate election, and the national environment this year has the potential to spell trouble for his reelection chances. Meanwhile, the GOP nominated a moderately conservative pro-business candidate in Joe O'Dea over a far-right challenger, which could appeal to moderate suburban voters in the state. The race has the potential to become competitive, but it remains Sen. Bennet's to lose.

Florida (Likely R). Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is seeking reelection against Rep. Val Demings (D). Despite Florida's status as a key traditional battleground, it is increasingly out of reach for Democratic candidates statewide following statewide shifts in exurban areas and shifts among key Hispanic constituencies towards the Republicans. Sen. Rubio has historically performed well with key swing voters in South Florida that Demings would need to win statewide, which makes Rubio the prohibitive favorite this year.

Georgia (Leans R). Incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is seeking a full term in the Senate following his narrow win in a January 2021 runoff in a special election triggered by the resignation of the late Sen. Johnny Isakson (R). Sen. Warnock faces off against former NFL running back Herschel Walker (R). As the senior pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, Sen. Warnock has deep ties to the African American community in Georgia, a critical voting bloc for Democrats to win statewide. Walker is a political newcomer with some controversies from his past, which has prompted concerns about his electability against Sen. Warnock. However, Georgia is a traditionally Republican state, and in a strong Republican national environment, marginal changes due to candidate quality are not likely to affect the final outcome, giving Walker a slight edge over Sen. Warnock. With polls this tight, there is a good chance that this race will go to a runoff in December as Georgia law requires a candidate to clear a majority of the vote.

Georgia Runoff (Leans D). Addendum. This section was added after the general election for the December runoff. All other portions of this analysis are unchanged. After finishing ahead of Walker but below the majority threshold, Sen. Warnock (D) enters the runoff with a consistent and strong polling lead over GOP challenger Walker, whose controversies from his past have continued to follow him throughout the runoff campaign. With control of the Senate already decided and strong Democratic turnout in the early vote, the race has now become Sen. Warnock's to lose. No incumbent has been defeated for reelection this year to the Senate, and it is unlikely that Warnock becomes the only one.

Nevada (Leans R). Freshman incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is running for reelection against former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R). Despite her incumbency, Sen. Cortez Masto suffers from low name recognition across the state, and the poor state of the economy in Nevada, which heavily relies on tourism, is dragging down Democratic incumbents statewide. The economy is the most important issue among swing voters in Nevada, particularly working class Hispanic voters, and Democratic candidates nationwide have struggled in recent years with voters who believe that the economy is the most important issue. However, some have questioned the electability of Laxalt, who supported efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Nevada. The Silver State has a history of large polling errors, and there is a good chance that Sen. Cortez Masto can defy the polls against a right-wing challenger in a similar way to her mentor and predecessor, the late majority leader Sen. Harry Reid (D), did in 2010. In fact, some analyses of the early vote in Nevada by pundits give Sen. Cortez Masto the edge. Overall, the nationwide environment against Democratic incumbents and the state of the Nevada economy place Sen. Cortez Masto as a slight underdog to Laxalt.

New Hampshire (Leans D). Freshman incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is running for reelection against former Brigadier General Donald Bolduc (R). Previously Governor of this state, Sen. Hassan defeated then incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) in a narrow race to win the seat. Despite being well-known statewide, Sen. Hassan has tended to poll below 50 percent, which is a danger sign for any incumbent of the majority party in the midterms. However, the GOP has had trouble recruiting a high profile candidate to run against Hassan, and the Democrats spent money to ensure that Bolduc's Trumpist bid for the GOP nomination prevailed over the more moderate state Senate President Chuck Morse (R). Overall a light blue state, New Hampshire is a very swingy state that tends to serve as a bellwether for national trends, and Democratic troubles nationwide spell difficulty for Hassan's reelection chances, but Sen. Hassan enters November with an edge in the polls. This is a key race to watch as the results come in, as any Democratic path of holding their majority relies on Hassan winning reelection.

North Carolina (Likely R). With incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) retiring, the Tar Heel State is seeing an open race between Rep. Ted Budd (R) and former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D). North Carolina is a state with a large urban-rural divide where the urban vote for Democrats is not enough to offset the rural vote for Republicans, and Democrats have consistently underperformed historical margins in the eastern half of the state in the past decade. Given that North Carolina is a light red state and this is a red wave year, Rep. Budd is the favorite to win.

Ohio (Likely R). Ohio also has a race for an open seat this year with popular incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) retiring. This race features businessman and author J. D. Vance (R) against Rep. Tim Ryan (D). Despite its status as a traditional battleground state, the Democrats have consistently been losing their appeal over the past decade to union workers in the Rust Belt amidst the decline of manufacturing across the Midwest and the rise of Trumpism. In the House, Rep. Ryan represents the Mahoning Valley, a key area of the industrial heartland that swung heavily from the Democrats towards Trump over the past few years, and Ryan maintains some amount of cross-over appeal with these voters that any Democrat would need to win statewide. On the GOP side, Vance emerged from a fractured GOP primary with a resoundingly pro-Trump message, and his upbringing gives him vital cultural connections to working class Appalachian Ohio, which includes the Mahoning Valley. Ryan is modeling his campaign and message based on the economic populism of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), the only Democrat who has won statewide since 2012. A Ryan upset would likely be through holding suburban voters in Ohio while also flipping traditionally Democratic voters who have recently backed President Trump along the Ohio turnpike. Given the political trends in Ohio, Rep. Ryan is the kind of Democrat that has the potential of winning the Buckeye State, but in the current environment, Ohio may be out of reach for a even a Democrat like Ryan, making Vance the favorite to win the race.

Pennsylvania (Leans R). Given the retirement of incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R), the Keystone State also features an open race between celebrity physician Mehmet Oz (R) and Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D). Oz is a political newcomer who owes his nomination to President Trump, who gave Oz a key endorsement during the hotly contested Republican primary. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Fetterman, from Western Pennsylvania, is an unconventional candidate often sporting a hoodie and shorts who is running on a message of economic populism. Fetterman's message and style is untested in Midwest, though it is a strategy that could appeal to industrial voters across Western Pennsylvania and the Wyoming Valley region that the Democrats are trying to win back from Trumpism. Heading into November, Oz has surged ahead in the polls following continuing concerns about Lt. Gov. Fetterman's health. However, Oz must win enough of the Trump coalition of rural and industrial voters and make inroads among voters in suburban Philadelphia to win this election.

Wisconsin (Likely R). Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is seeking reelection against Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D). First elected with as part of the Tea Party wave of 2010, Sen. Johnson is staunchly conservative and strongly supportive of President Trump. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Barnes is aligned with the progressive left and supported Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). This is a race that runs to the base of both parties in an evenly split state. Sen. Johnson has previously done well in vast rural portions of the state, especially traditionally Democratic southwestern portion of the state, while also has done enough to hold onto traditional Republican voters in suburban areas along Lake Michigan. On the other hand, the Democrats have increasing relied on crossover appeal to suburban voters in the southeast region of Wisconsin while they lose rural voters to win narrow margins statewide. This feat is one that Lt. Gov. Barnes is not likely to replicate, though his progressive bona fides are likely to run well in the Madison area, a heavily liberal part of the state. Given the national environment and the Democrats' trajectory among rural voters, Johnson is the favorite to win reelection.

Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!

<< Back to Elections Home