This year, there are three off-year gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Louisiana jungle primary is scheduled for October 14, while Louisiana and Mississippi will hold elections on November 7.
There has not been much in terms of polling data to run a reasonable model for this year's elections, and as a result, the current ratings are generated from some fundamental observations of these races. Hence, the methodology is not quite as quantitative as it has been in past years.
The outcome of these elections will be covered and modelled election night via an interactive web app, linked here.
So here are this year's ratings:
| 23 Democrats | Republicans 27 |
Kentucky (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is running for reelection against state Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). Gov. Beshear has enjoyed high approval ratings from a wide electorate of voters and the Beshear name still carries some weight in ancestrally Democratic mining regions in eastern Kentucky that propelled him to his initial election victory, and both have given him an advantage in his reelection campaign. However, the deep red partisan lean of the Bluegrass State has worked against Gov. Beshear, and Cameron's campaign has attempted to tie Gov Beshear's policies to that of President Biden, who remains deeply unpopular in Kentucky. The scant public polling that has existed for this election indicates that it is likely to be a narrowly decided race. While Gov. Beshear remains narrowly favored to follow his father's footsteps to win a second gubernatorial term, there remains a good chance that Cameron can ride the partisan lean of the state in polarized times to win.
Louisiana (Safe R). State Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and state Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson (D), among others, are running in a jungle primary for an open seat, vacated by the term-limited incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D). Landry has opened a wide lead against other candidates in public polling but has struggled to poll above 50 percent, which is required to win the jungle primary outright and avoid a runoff in November. However, large fractions of voters remain undecided according to polls and these voters could make a last minute break towards Landry and push him over the finish line and avoid a runoff. Regardless of whether Landry wins a majority in the jungle primary or the race advances to a runoff, Landry remains a prohibitive favorite to win.
Mississippi (Likely R). Incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves (R) is running for reelection against Democrat Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner of the Northern District. Despite the deep red partisan lean of the Magnolia State, Gov. Reeves suffers from low approval ratings and his public image has been dogged by corruption concerns related to campaign donations from groups tied to a scandal to embezzle state welfare dollars. Gov. Reeves's struggling approval ratings have prevented him to taking this race to a slam dunk, though Gov. Reeves remains favored to win given the entrenched partisan divides of the Deep South.
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| Candidate | Party |
| Andy Beshear* | DEM |
| Daniel Cameron | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jeff Landry | GOP |
| Shawn Wilson | DEM |
| Stephen Waguespack | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tate Reeves* | GOP |
| Brandon Presley | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |