The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2022.
This year does not expect to showcase very many close gubernatorial races, with the exception of New Hampshire and North Carolina.
| 23 Democrats | Republicans 27 |
New Hampshire (Leans R). With the retirement of popular incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R), for Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) are running for an open seat. New Hampshire is a state with a decent amount of ticket splitting and currently polls slow a close race with many undecided voters, so it still remains highly uncertain and volatile.
North Carolina (Likely D). State Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) are running to succeed the term-limited incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The outspoken and embattled Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson won the GOP nomination with support from the Trump wing of the Republican Party, but has struggled in the general election with repeated controversies regarding his tendency to make bombastic comments. Stein is generally considered a favorite to win.
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!
| Candidate | Party |
| Matt Meyer | DEM |
| Michael Ramone | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Braun | GOP |
| Jennifer McCormick | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Kehoe | GOP |
| Crystal Quade | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Gianforte* | GOP |
| Ryan Busse | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kelly Ayotte | GOP |
| Joyce Craig | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Ayotte +2.3 | -- |
| 2018-M | Ayotte +4 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Ayotte +3.9 | Ayotte 80.8% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Ayotte 86.5% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Stein | DEM |
| Mark Robinson | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Stein +14.6 | -- |
| 2018-M | Stein +15 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Stein +12.6 | Stein 98.1% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Stein 99.7% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kelly Armstrong | GOP |
| Merrill Piepkorn | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Spencer Cox* | GOP |
| Brian King | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Phil Scott* | GOP |
| Esther Charlestin | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Ferguson | DEM |
| Dave Reichert | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Patrick Morrisey | GOP |
| Steve Williams | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |