This year, I'm running a similar version of the model that I ran for the 2022 midterms. Though the model for individual districts is the same, the way that the individual results are added up is very different. Particularly, this year's model assumes that individual states are correlated in the same way that the electoral college is for the presidential forecast.
The GOP is attempting to hold their narrow majority following two years of their tenuous and chaotic hold on the chamber. Current polls suggest a tight race again, though the potential for polling errors and political realignment add significant uncertainty to the outcome.
| Party | Probability | Expected | Rated |
| Democrats | 44.2% | 214.2 | 215 |
| Republicans | 55.8% | 220.8 | 220 |
Popular vote: Republicans +0.8
| Date | Popular Vote |
Probability | Expected | Rated | |||
| DEM | GOP | DEM | GOP | DEM | GOP | ||
| 11/04 | R +0.8 | 44.2% | 55.8% | 214.2 | 220.8 | 215 | 220 |
| 11/03 | R +1.0 | 43.3% | 56.7% | 213.6 | 221.4 | 215 | 220 |
| 10/26 | R +1.4 | 42.0% | 58.0% | 212.5 | 222.5 | 214 | 221 |
| 10/19 | D +0.3 | 48.6% | 51.4% | 217.0 | 218.0 | 218 | 217 |
| 10/12 | D +0.7 | 50.6% | 49.4% | 217.9 | 217.1 | 218 | 217 |
| 10/06 | D +1.2 | 52.9% | 47.1% | 219.6 | 215.4 | 221 | 214 |
| 215 Democrats | Republicans 220 |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Hafner | DEM |
| Mary Peltola | DEM |
| Nick Begich | REP |
| John Howe | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Barry Moore | REP |
| Tom Holmes | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Shomari Figures | DEM |
| Caroleene Dobson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gary Palmer | REP |
| Elizabeth Anderson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Terri Sewell | DEM |
| Robin Litaker | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Crawford | REP |
| Rodney Govens | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| French Hill | REP |
| Marcus Jones | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steve Womack | REP |
| Caitlin Draper | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bruce Westerman | REP |
| Risie Howard | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Schweikert | REP |
| Amish Shah | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eli Crane | REP |
| Jonathan Nez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Yassamin Ansari | DEM |
| Jeff Zink | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Stanton | DEM |
| Kelly Cooper | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andy Biggs | REP |
| Katrina Schaffner | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Juan Ciscomani | REP |
| Kirsten Engel | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Raul Grijalva | DEM |
| Daniel Butierez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Abraham Hamadeh | REP |
| Greg Whitten | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Paul Gosar | REP |
| Quacy Smith | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Doug LaMalfa | REP |
| Rose Penelope Yee | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jared Huffman | DEM |
| Chris Coulombe | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kevin Kiley | REP |
| Jessica Morse | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Thompson | DEM |
| John Munn | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom McClintock | REP |
| Mike Barkley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ami Bera | DEM |
| Christine Bish | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Doris Matsui | DEM |
| Tom Silva | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Garamendi | DEM |
| Rudy Recile | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Harder | DEM |
| Kevin Lincoln | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark DeSaulnier | DEM |
| Katherine Piccinini | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nancy Pelosi | DEM |
| Bruce Lou | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adam Gray | DEM |
| John Duarte | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Swalwell | DEM |
| Vin Kruttiventi | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kevin Mullin | DEM |
| Anna Cheng Kramer | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ro Khanna | DEM |
| Anita Chen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Zoe Lofgren | DEM |
| Peter Hernandez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jimmy Panetta | DEM |
| Jason Anderson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Costa | DEM |
| Michael Maher | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rudy Salas | DEM |
| David Valadao | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jay Obernolte | REP |
| Derek Marshall | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Salud Carbajal | DEM |
| Thomas Cole | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Raul Ruiz | DEM |
| Ian Weeks | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Julia Brownley | DEM |
| Michael Koslow | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| George Whitesides | DEM |
| Mike Garcia | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Judy Chu | DEM |
| April Verlato | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Luz Rivas | DEM |
| Benito Bernal | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laura Friedman | DEM |
| Alex Balekian | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gil Cisneros | DEM |
| Daniel Martinez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Sherman | DEM |
| Larry Thompson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pete Aguilar | DEM |
| Tom Herman | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Norma Torres | DEM |
| Mike Cargile | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ted Lieu | DEM |
| Melissa Toomim | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Linda Sanchez | DEM |
| Eric Ching | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Takano | DEM |
| David Serpa | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Young Kim | REP |
| Joe Kerr | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ken Calvert | REP |
| Will Rollins | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Robert Garcia | DEM |
| John Briscoe | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maxine Waters | DEM |
| Steve Williams | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nanette Barragan | DEM |
| Roger Groh | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Derek Tran | DEM |
| Michelle Steel | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lou Correa | DEM |
| David Pan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dave Min | DEM |
| Scott Baugh | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Darrell Issa | REP |
| Stephen Houlahan | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Levin | DEM |
| Matt Gunderson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Peters | DEM |
| Peter Bono | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sara Jacobs | DEM |
| Bill Wells | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Juan Vargas | DEM |
| Justin Lee | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Diana DeGette | DEM |
| Valdamar Archuleta | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Neguse | DEM |
| Marshall Dawson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jeff Hurd | REP |
| Adam Frisch | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lauren Boebert | REP |
| Trisha Calvarese | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jeff Crank | REP |
| River Gassen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jason Crow | DEM |
| John Fabbricatore | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brittany Pettersen | DEM |
| Sergei Matveyuk | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Yadira Caraveo | DEM |
| Gabe Evans | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John B. Larson | DEM |
| Jim Griffin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Courtney | DEM |
| Mike France | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rosa DeLauro | DEM |
| Michael Massey | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Himes | DEM |
| Michael Goldstein | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jahana Hayes | DEM |
| George Logan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah McBride | DEM |
| John Whalen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Matt Gaetz | REP |
| Gay Valimont | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Neal Dunn | REP |
| Yen Bailey | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kat Cammack | REP |
| Tom Wells | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Aaron Bean | REP |
| LaShonda Holloway | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Rutherford | REP |
| Jay McGovern | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Waltz | REP |
| James Stockton III | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Cory Mills | REP |
| Jennifer Adams | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Haridopolos | REP |
| Sandy Kennedy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Darren Soto | DEM |
| Thomas Chalifoux | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maxwell Frost | DEM |
| Willie Montague | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Daniel Webster | REP |
| Barbie Hall | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gus Bilirakis | REP |
| Rock Aboujaoude Jr. | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Anna Paulina Luna | REP |
| Whitney Fox | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kathy Castor | DEM |
| Rocky Rochford | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laurel Lee | REP |
| Pat Kemp | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Vern Buchanan | REP |
| Jan Schneider | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Steube | REP |
| Manny Lopez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Franklin | REP |
| Andrea Doria Kale | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Byron Donalds | REP |
| Kari Lerner | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Mast | REP |
| Thomas Witkop | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lois Frankel | DEM |
| Dan Franzese | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jared Moskowitz | DEM |
| Joe Kaufman | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frederica Wilson | DEM |
| Jesus Navarro | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | DEM |
| Chris Eddy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mario Diaz-Balart | REP |
| Joey Atkins | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | REP |
| Lucia Baez-Geller | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Carlos A. Gimenez | REP |
| Phil Her | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Buddy Carter | REP |
| Patti Hewitt | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sanford Bishop | DEM |
| Wayne Johnson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Jack | REP |
| Maura Keller | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hank Johnson | DEM |
| Eugene Yu | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nikema Williams | DEM |
| John Salvesen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lucy McBath | DEM |
| Jeff Criswell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rich McCormick | REP |
| Bob Christian | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Austin Scott | REP |
| Darrius Butler | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andrew Clyde | REP |
| Tambrei Cash | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Collins | REP |
| Lexy Doherty | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Barry Loudermilk | REP |
| Kate Stamper | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Allen | REP |
| Liz Johnson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Scott | DEM |
| Jonathan Chavez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | REP |
| Shawn Harris | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ed Case | DEM |
| Patrick Largey | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jill Tokuda | DEM |
| Steve Bond | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | REP |
| Christina Bohannan | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ashley Hinson | REP |
| Sarah Corkery | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Zach Nunn | REP |
| Lanon Baccam | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Randy Feenstra | REP |
| Ryan Melton | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Russ Fulcher | REP |
| Kaylee Peterson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Simpson | REP |
| David Roth | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jonathan Jackson | DEM |
| Marcus Lewis | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Robin Kelly | DEM |
| Ashley Ramos | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Delia Ramirez | DEM |
| John Booras | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chuy Garcia | DEM |
| Lupe Castillo | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Quigley | DEM |
| Tommy Hanson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sean Casten | DEM |
| Niki Conforti | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Danny Davis | DEM |
| Chad Koppie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Raja Krishnamoorthi | DEM |
| Mark Rice | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Janice Schakowsky | DEM |
| Seth Cohen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Schneider | DEM |
| Jim Carris | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bill Foster | DEM |
| Jerry Evans | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Bost | REP |
| Brian Roberts | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nikki Budzinski | DEM |
| Joshua Loyd | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lauren Underwood | DEM |
| Jim Marter | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Sorensen | DEM |
| Joe McGraw | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frank Mrvan | DEM |
| Randy Niemeyer | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rudolph Yakym | REP |
| Lori Camp | DEM |
| William Henry | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marlin Stutzman | REP |
| Kiley Adolph | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Baird | REP |
| Derrick Holder | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Victoria Spartz | REP |
| Deborah Pickett | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jefferson Shreve | REP |
| Cinde Wirth | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andre Carson | DEM |
| John Schmitz | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Messmer | REP |
| Erik Hurt | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Erin Houchin | REP |
| Tim Peck | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tracey Mann | REP |
| Paul Buskirk | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Derek Schmidt | REP |
| Nancy Boyda | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sharice Davids | DEM |
| Prasanth Reddy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ron Estes | REP |
| Esau Freeman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| James Comer | REP |
| Erin Marshall | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brett Guthrie | REP |
| Hank Linderman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Morgan McGarvey | DEM |
| Mike Craven | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andy Barr | REP |
| Randy Cravens | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steve Scalise | REP |
| Mel Manuel | DEM |
| Randall Arrington | REP |
| Ross Shale | REP |
| Frankie Hyers | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Carter | DEM |
| Devin Davis | DEM |
| Devin Graham | REP |
| Christy Lynch | REP |
| Shorell Perrilloux | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sadi Summerlin | DEM |
| Priscilla Gonzalez | DEM |
| Clay Higgins | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Julia Letlow | REP |
| Michael Vallien | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Quentin Anderson | DEM |
| Cleo Fields | DEM |
| Elbert Guillory | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Stephen Lynch | DEM |
| Robert Burke | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bill Keating | DEM |
| Dan Sullivan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andy Harris | REP |
| Blane Miller | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Johnny Olszewski | DEM |
| Kimberly Klacik | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah Elfreth | DEM |
| Robert Steinberger | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Glenn Ivey | DEM |
| George McDermott | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steny Hoyer | DEM |
| Michelle Talkington | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| April McClain-Delaney | DEM |
| Neil Parrott | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kweisi Mfume | DEM |
| Scott Collier | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jamie Raskin | DEM |
| Cheryl Riley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chellie Pingree | DEM |
| Ronald Russell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Austin Theriault | REP |
| Jared Golden | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jack Bergman | REP |
| Callie Barr | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Moolenaar | REP |
| Michael Lynch | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hillary Scholten | DEM |
| Paul Hudson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bill Huizenga | REP |
| Jessica Swartz | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Walberg | REP |
| Libbi Urban | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Debbie Dingell | DEM |
| Heather Smiley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Curtis Hertel | DEM |
| Tom Barrett | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | DEM |
| Paul Junge | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lisa McClain | REP |
| Clinton St. Mosley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John James | REP |
| Andrea Kirby | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Haley Stevens | DEM |
| Nick Somberg | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rashida Tlaib | DEM |
| James Hooper | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Shri Thanedar | DEM |
| Martell Bivings | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Finstad | REP |
| Rachel Bohman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Angie Craig | DEM |
| Joe Teirab | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kelly Morrison | DEM |
| Tad Jude | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Betty McCollum | DEM |
| May Lor Xiong | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ilhan Omar | DEM |
| Dalia al-Aqidi | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Emmer | REP |
| Jeanne Hendricks | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michelle Fischbach | REP |
| A. J. Peters | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pete Stauber | REP |
| Jennifer Schultz | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Wesley Bell | DEM |
| Andrew Jones | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ann Wagner | REP |
| Ray Hartmann | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Onder | REP |
| Bethany Mann | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Alford | REP |
| Jeanette Cass | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Emanuel Cleaver | DEM |
| Sean Smith | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sam Graves | REP |
| Pam May | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Burlison | REP |
| Missi Hesketh | DEM |
| Kevin Craig | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jason Smith | REP |
| Randi McCallian | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Trent Kelly | REP |
| Dianne Black | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bennie Thompson | DEM |
| Ron Eller | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Ezell | REP |
| Craig Raybon | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ryan Zinke | REP |
| Monica Tranel | DEM |
| Dennis Hayes | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Downing | REP |
| John Driscoll | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laurie Buckhout | REP |
| Don Davis | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Deborah Ross | DEM |
| Alan Swain | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Valerie Foushee | DEM |
| Eric Blankenburg | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Virginia Foxx | REP |
| Chuck Hubbard | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Rouzer | REP |
| Marlando Pridgen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Harris | REP |
| Justin Dues | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Richard Hudson | REP |
| Nigel Bristow | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pat Harrigan | REP |
| Ralph Scott Jr. | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chuck Edwards | REP |
| Caleb Rudow | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alma Adams | DEM |
| Addul Ali | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Knott | REP |
| Frank Pierce | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Moore | REP |
| Pam Genant | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Julie Fedorchak | REP |
| Trygve Hammer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Flood | REP |
| Carol Blood | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Don Bacon | REP |
| Tony Vargas | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adrian Smith | REP |
| Daniel Ebers | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Pappas | DEM |
| Russell Prescott | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maggie Goodlander | DEM |
| Lily Tang Williams | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Donald Norcross | DEM |
| Teddy Liddell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jeff Van Drew | REP |
| Joe Salerno | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Herb Conaway | DEM |
| Rajesh Mohan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Smith | REP |
| Matthew Jenkins | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Gottheimer | DEM |
| Mary Jo Guinchard | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frank Pallone | DEM |
| Scott Fegler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Kean Jr. | REP |
| Sue Altman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rob Menendez | DEM |
| Anthony Valdes | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nellie Pou | DEM |
| Billy Prempeh | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| LaMonica McIver | DEM |
| Carmen Bucco | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mikie Sherrill | DEM |
| Joseph Belnome | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bonnie Watson Coleman | DEM |
| Darius Mayfield | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Melanie Stansbury | DEM |
| Steve Jones | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gabriel Vasquez | DEM |
| Yvette Herrell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez | DEM |
| Sharon Clahchischilliage | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dina Titus | DEM |
| Mark Robertson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Susie Lee | DEM |
| Drew Johnson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steven Horsford | DEM |
| John Lee | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nick LaLota | REP |
| John Avlon | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andrew Garbarino | REP |
| Rob Lubin | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Suozzi | DEM |
| Michael LiPetri | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laura Gillen | DEM |
| Anthony D'Esposito | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gregory Meeks | DEM |
| Paul King | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Grace Meng | DEM |
| Tom Zmich | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nydia Velazquez | DEM |
| William Kregler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hakeem Jeffries | DEM |
| John Delaney | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Yvette Clarke | DEM |
| Menachem Raitport | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Goldman | DEM |
| Alex Dodenhoff | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nicole Malliotakis | REP |
| Andrea Morse | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jerry Nadler | DEM |
| Michael Zumbluskas | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adriano Espaillat | DEM |
| Ruben Vargas | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | DEM |
| Tina Forte | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ritchie Torres | DEM |
| Gonzalo Duran | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| George Latimer | DEM |
| Miriam Levitt Flisser | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mondaire Jones | DEM |
| Mike Lawler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pat Ryan | DEM |
| Alison Esposito | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Riley | DEM |
| Marcus Molinaro | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Paul Tonko | DEM |
| Kevin Waltz | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Elise Stefanik | REP |
| Paula Collins | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Mannion | DEM |
| Brandon Williams | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nick Langworthy | REP |
| Thomas Carle | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Claudia Tenney | REP |
| David Wagenhauser | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joseph Morelle | DEM |
| Gregg Sadwick | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Kennedy | DEM |
| Anthony Marecki | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Landsman | DEM |
| Orlando Sonza | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Taylor | REP |
| Samantha Meadows | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joyce Beatty | DEM |
| Michael Young | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Jordan | REP |
| Tamie Wilson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Latta | REP |
| Keith Mundy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Rulli | REP |
| Michael Kripchak | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Max Miller | REP |
| Matt Diemer | DEM |
| Dennis Kucinich | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Warren Davidson | REP |
| Vanessa Enoch | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Derek Merrin | REP |
| Marcy Kaptur | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Turner | REP |
| Amy Cox | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Shontel Brown | DEM |
| Alan Rapoport | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Balderson | REP |
| Jerrad Christian | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Emilia Sykes | DEM |
| Kevin Coughlin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Joyce | REP |
| Brian Kenderes | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Carey | REP |
| Adam Miller | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kevin Hern | REP |
| Dennis Baker | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Brecheen | REP |
| Brandon Wade | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Cole | REP |
| Mary Brannon | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Stephanie Bice | REP |
| Madison Horn | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Suzanne Bonamici | DEM |
| Bob Todd | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Cliff Bentz | REP |
| Dan Ruby | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maxine Dexter | DEM |
| Joanna Harbour | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Val Hoyle | DEM |
| Monique DeSpain | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Janelle Bynum | DEM |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andrea Salinas | DEM |
| Mike Erickson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | REP |
| Ashley Ehasz | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brendan Boyle | DEM |
| Aaron Bashir | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Madeleine Dean | DEM |
| David Winkler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mary Gay Scanlon | DEM |
| Alfeia DeVaughn-Goodwin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chrissy Houlahan | DEM |
| Neil Young | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ryan Mackenzie | REP |
| Susan Wild | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rob Bresnahan | REP |
| Matt Cartwright | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Meuser | REP |
| Amanda Waldman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Perry | REP |
| Janelle Stelson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lloyd Smucker | REP |
| Jim Atkinson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Summer Lee | DEM |
| James Hayes | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Joyce | REP |
| Beth Farnham | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Guy Reschenthaler | REP |
| Christopher Dziados | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Glenn Thompson | REP |
| Zacheray Womer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Kelly | REP |
| Preston Nouri | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Deluzio | DEM |
| Rob Mercuri | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gabe Amo | DEM |
| Allen Waters | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Seth M. Magaziner | DEM |
| Steve Corvi | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nancy Mace | REP |
| Michael Moore | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Wilson | REP |
| David Robinson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sheri Biggs | REP |
| Bryon Best | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| William Timmons | REP |
| Kathryn Harvey | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ralph Norman | REP |
| Evangeline Hundley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Clyburn | DEM |
| Duke Buckner | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Russell Fry | REP |
| Mal Hyman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dusty Johnson | REP |
| Sheryl Johnson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Diana Harshbarger | REP |
| Kevin Jenkins | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Burchett | REP |
| Jane George | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chuck Fleischmann | REP |
| Jack Allen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott DesJarlais | REP |
| Victoria Broderick | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andy Ogles | REP |
| Maryam Abolfazli | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Rose | REP |
| Lore Bergman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Green | REP |
| Megan Barry | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Kustoff | REP |
| Sarah Freeman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steve Cohen | DEM |
| Charlotte Bergmann | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Crenshaw | REP |
| Peter Filler | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Keith Self | REP |
| Sandeep Srivastava | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pat Fallon | REP |
| Simon Cardell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lance Gooden | REP |
| Ruth Torres | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jake Ellzey | REP |
| John Love | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lizzie Fletcher | DEM |
| Caroline Kane | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Morgan Luttrell | REP |
| Laura Jones | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael McCaul | REP |
| Theresa Boisseau | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Craig Goldman | REP |
| Trey Hunt | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Randy Weber | REP |
| Rhonda Hart | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Monica De La Cruz Hernandez | REP |
| Michelle Vallejo | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Veronica Escobar | DEM |
| Irene Armendariz-Jackson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pete Sessions | REP |
| Mark Lorenzen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sylvester Turner | DEM |
| Lana Centonze | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chip Roy | REP |
| Kristin Hook | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Nehls | REP |
| Marquette Greene-Scott | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tony Gonzales | REP |
| Santos Limon | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Beth Van Duyne | REP |
| Sam Eppler | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brandon Gill | REP |
| Ernest Lineberger III | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Cloud | REP |
| Tanya Lloyd | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Henry Cuellar | DEM |
| Jay Furman | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sylvia Garcia | DEM |
| Alan Garza | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Carter | REP |
| Stuart Whitlow | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Julie Johnson | DEM |
| Darrell Day | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marc Veasey | DEM |
| Patrick Gillespie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Vicente Gonzalez | DEM |
| Mayra Flores | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Casar | DEM |
| Steven Wright | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Babin | REP |
| Dayna Steele | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lloyd Doggett | DEM |
| Jenny Garcia Sharon | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Wesley Hunt | REP |
| Melissa McDonough | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Blake Moore | REP |
| Bill Campbell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Celeste Maloy | REP |
| Nathaniel Woodward | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Kennedy | REP |
| Glenn Wright | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Burgess Owens | REP |
| Katrina Fallick-Wang | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rob Wittman | REP |
| Leslie Mehta | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jen Kiggans | REP |
| Missy Cotter Smasal | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bobby Scott | DEM |
| John Sitka | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jennifer McClellan | DEM |
| Bill Moher | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John McGuire | REP |
| Gloria Witt | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ben Cline | REP |
| Ken Mitchell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eugene Vindman | DEM |
| Derrick Anderson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Don Beyer | DEM |
| Jerry Torres | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Morgan Griffith | REP |
| Karen Baker | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Suhas Subramanyam | DEM |
| Mike Clancy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gerry Connolly | DEM |
| Mike Van Meter | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Becca Balint | DEM |
| Mark Coester | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Suzan DelBene | DEM |
| Jeb Brewer | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Larsen | DEM |
| Cody Hart | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Kent | REP |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Baumgartner | REP |
| Carmela Conroy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Emily Randall | DEM |
| Drew MacEwen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pramila Jayapal | DEM |
| Dan Alexander | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kim Schrier | DEM |
| Carmen Goers | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marilyn Strickland | DEM |
| Don Hewett | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bryan Steil | REP |
| Peter Barca | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marc Pocan | DEM |
| Erik Olsen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Derrick Van Orden | REP |
| Rebecca Cooke | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gwen Moore | DEM |
| Tim Rogers | REP |
| Robert Raymond | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Fitzgerald | REP |
| Ben Steinhoff | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Glenn Grothman | REP |
| John Zarbano | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Tiffany | REP |
| Kyle Kilbourn | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tony Wied | REP |
| Kristin Lyerly | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Carol Miller | REP |
| Chris Reed | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Riley Moore | REP |
| Steven Wendelin | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Harriet Hageman | REP |
| Kyle Cameron | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Rogers | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Robert Aderholt | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dale Strong | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lateefah Simon | DEM |
| Jennifer Tran | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sam Liccardo | DEM |
| Evan Low | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Vince Fong | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jimmy Gomez | DEM |
| David Kim | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sydney Kamlager-Dove | DEM |
| Juan Rey | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mary Miller | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Darin LaHood | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Thomas Massie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hal Rogers | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Johnson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Richard Neal | DEM |
| Nadia Milleron | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim McGovern | DEM |
| Cornelius Shea | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lori Trahan | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jake Auchincloss | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Katherine Clark | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Seth Moulton | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ayanna Pressley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Guest | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Murphy | REP |
| Gheorghe Cormos | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Addison McDowell | REP |
| Kevin Hayes | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Amodei | REP |
| Javi Tachiquin | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frank Lucas | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dwight Evans | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nathaniel Moran | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Al Green | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| August Pfluger | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ronny Jackson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jodey Arrington | REP |
| Bernard Johnson | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joaquin Castro | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Roger Williams | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jasmine Crockett | DEM |
| Jrmar Jefferson | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Newhouse | REP |
| Jerrod Sessler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adam Smith | DEM |
| Melissa Chaudhry | DEM |
| District | Margin | Probability | Rating |
| AK-AL | R +5.0 | 66.1% R | Leans R |
| AL-01 | R +53.1 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| AL-02 | D +7.9 | 83.7% D | Likely D |
| AL-03 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| AL-04 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| AL-05 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| AL-06 | R +40.7 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| AL-07 | D +26.3 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| AR-01 | R +43.3 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| AR-02 | R +17.5 | 95.2% R | Likely R |
| AR-03 | R +27.4 | 99.1% R | Safe R |
| AR-04 | R +38.8 | 99.9% R | Safe R |
| AZ-01 | R +1.4 | 55.4% R | Leans R |
| AZ-02 | R +10.0 | 83.1% R | Likely R |
| AZ-03 | D +51.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| AZ-04 | D +9.1 | 86.6% D | Likely D |
| AZ-05 | R +19.6 | 96.4% R | Likely R |
| AZ-06 | R +2.1 | 57.8% R | Leans R |
| AZ-07 | D +29.9 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| AZ-08 | R +17.2 | 94.9% R | Likely R |
| AZ-09 | R +29.2 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| CA-01 | R +21.9 | 97.5% R | Likely R |
| CA-02 | D +47.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-03 | R +5.1 | 70.6% R | Leans R |
| CA-04 | D +35.2 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-05 | R +16.6 | 94.5% R | Likely R |
| CA-06 | D +15.0 | 95.6% D | Likely D |
| CA-07 | D +35.4 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-08 | D +50.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-09 | D +11.3 | 91.1% D | Likely D |
| CA-10 | D +33.1 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| CA-11 | D +70.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-12 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-13 | D +4.4 | 71.3% D | Leans D |
| CA-14 | D +40.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-15 | D +52.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-16 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-17 | D +42.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-18 | D +38.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-19 | D +38.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-20 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| CA-21 | D +14.2 | 94.9% D | Likely D |
| CA-22 | D +2.9 | 63.6% D | Leans D |
| CA-23 | R +14.6 | 92.5% R | Likely R |
| CA-24 | D +23.0 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| CA-25 | D +14.5 | 95.2% D | Likely D |
| CA-26 | D +13.9 | 94.6% D | Likely D |
| CA-27 | D +1.2 | 56.0% D | Leans D |
| CA-28 | D +32.2 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| CA-29 | D +46.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-30 | D +41.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-31 | D +23.0 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| CA-32 | D +37.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-33 | D +21.1 | 98.6% D | Safe D |
| CA-34 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-35 | D +23.4 | 99.1% D | Safe D |
| CA-36 | D +39.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-37 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-38 | D +22.3 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-39 | D +21.7 | 98.8% D | Safe D |
| CA-40 | R +6.5 | 74.5% R | Leans R |
| CA-41 | R +4.7 | 69.3% R | Leans R |
| CA-42 | D +40.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-43 | D +56.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-44 | D +45.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-45 | D +0.0 | 51.0% D | Leans D |
| CA-46 | D +27.9 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| CA-47 | D +6.4 | 79.1% D | Leans D |
| CA-48 | R +16.0 | 94.0% R | Likely R |
| CA-49 | D +6.0 | 77.6% D | Leans D |
| CA-50 | D +27.4 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| CA-51 | D +24.5 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| CA-52 | D +33.8 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| CO-01 | D +58.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CO-02 | D +38.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CO-03 | R +8.4 | 76.6% R | Leans R |
| CO-04 | R +20.1 | 95.9% R | Likely R |
| CO-05 | R +13.7 | 91.5% R | Likely R |
| CO-06 | D +20.7 | 98.6% D | Safe D |
| CO-07 | D +13.6 | 94.3% D | Likely D |
| CO-08 | D +2.1 | 60.6% D | Leans D |
| CT-01 | D +24.8 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| CT-02 | D +14.0 | 94.2% D | Likely D |
| CT-03 | D +15.8 | 96.3% D | Likely D |
| CT-04 | D +24.6 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| CT-05 | D +5.7 | 76.8% D | Leans D |
| DE-AL | D +14.4 | 95.1% D | Likely D |
| FL-01 | R +34.3 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| FL-02 | R +15.1 | 93.1% R | Likely R |
| FL-03 | R +18.4 | 95.9% R | Likely R |
| FL-04 | R +12.8 | 89.9% R | Likely R |
| FL-05 | R +19.2 | 96.3% R | Likely R |
| FL-06 | R +27.7 | 99.1% R | Safe R |
| FL-07 | R +10.7 | 86.5% R | Likely R |
| FL-08 | R +21.1 | 97.3% R | Likely R |
| FL-09 | D +13.7 | 94.4% D | Likely D |
| FL-10 | D +24.9 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| FL-11 | R +16.2 | 94.1% R | Likely R |
| FL-12 | R +33.9 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| FL-13 | R +9.5 | 83.0% R | Likely R |
| FL-14 | D +16.6 | 96.9% D | Likely D |
| FL-15 | R +9.3 | 83.0% R | Likely R |
| FL-16 | R +14.6 | 92.4% R | Likely R |
| FL-17 | R +20.6 | 97.1% R | Likely R |
| FL-18 | R +27.0 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| FL-19 | R +25.9 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| FL-20 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| FL-21 | R +15.7 | 93.5% R | Likely R |
| FL-22 | D +13.7 | 94.3% D | Likely D |
| FL-23 | D +8.1 | 84.3% D | Likely D |
| FL-24 | D +46.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| FL-25 | D +15.0 | 95.6% D | Likely D |
| FL-26 | R +27.1 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| FL-27 | R +6.4 | 74.8% R | Leans R |
| FL-28 | R +11.9 | 88.6% R | Likely R |
| GA-01 | R +17.1 | 94.9% R | Likely R |
| GA-02 | D +9.5 | 87.3% D | Likely D |
| GA-03 | R +33.0 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| GA-04 | D +55.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-05 | D +69.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-06 | D +45.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-07 | R +23.6 | 98.2% R | Safe R |
| GA-08 | R +31.4 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| GA-09 | R +35.4 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| GA-10 | R +24.1 | 98.3% R | Safe R |
| GA-11 | R +26.3 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| GA-12 | R +14.6 | 92.5% R | Likely R |
| GA-13 | D +39.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-14 | R +38.7 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| HI-01 | D +35.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| HI-02 | D +27.2 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| IA-01 | R +5.7 | 72.0% R | Leans R |
| IA-02 | R +7.5 | 78.2% R | Leans R |
| IA-03 | R +2.2 | 58.0% R | Leans R |
| IA-04 | R +29.5 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| ID-01 | R +40.8 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| ID-02 | R +26.8 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| IL-01 | D +37.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-02 | D +36.5 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-03 | D +38.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-04 | D +42.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-05 | D +36.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-06 | D +6.7 | 79.9% D | Leans D |
| IL-07 | D +65.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-08 | D +14.5 | 95.2% D | Likely D |
| IL-09 | D +39.2 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-10 | D +22.9 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| IL-11 | D +12.5 | 92.9% D | Likely D |
| IL-12 | R +46.1 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| IL-13 | D +11.5 | 91.2% D | Likely D |
| IL-14 | D +8.0 | 83.8% D | Likely D |
| IL-15 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| IL-16 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| IL-17 | D +5.1 | 74.0% D | Leans D |
| IN-01 | D +7.5 | 82.1% D | Likely D |
| IN-02 | R +26.6 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| IN-03 | R +32.9 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| IN-04 | R +32.5 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| IN-05 | R +19.4 | 96.4% R | Likely R |
| IN-06 | R +33.9 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| IN-07 | D +37.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IN-08 | R +35.7 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| IN-09 | R +29.3 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| KS-01 | R +32.3 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| KS-02 | R +19.8 | 96.6% R | Likely R |
| KS-03 | D +4.7 | 71.5% D | Leans D |
| KS-04 | R +25.3 | 98.6% R | Safe R |
| KY-01 | R +45.3 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| KY-02 | R +40.4 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| KY-03 | D +22.1 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| KY-04 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| KY-05 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| KY-06 | R +17.6 | 95.2% R | Likely R |
| LA-01 | R +42.1 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| LA-02 | D +35.6 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| LA-03 | R +48.0 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| LA-04 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| LA-05 | R +41.6 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| LA-06 | D +15.1 | 95.7% D | Likely D |
| MA-01 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-02 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-03 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-04 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-05 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-06 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-07 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-08 | D +36.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MA-09 | D +17.6 | 97.5% D | Likely D |
| MD-01 | R +17.6 | 95.1% R | Likely R |
| MD-02 | D +8.7 | 82.9% D | Likely D |
| MD-03 | D +20.9 | 98.6% D | Safe D |
| MD-04 | D +78.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MD-05 | D +32.8 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| MD-06 | D +6.5 | 79.3% D | Leans D |
| MD-07 | D +59.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MD-08 | D +59.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| ME-01 | D +21.4 | 98.8% D | Safe D |
| ME-02 | R +4.8 | 66.3% R | Leans R |
| MI-01 | R +23.4 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| MI-02 | R +31.4 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| MI-03 | D +6.7 | 79.7% D | Leans D |
| MI-04 | R +9.2 | 83.2% R | Likely R |
| MI-05 | R +26.9 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| MI-06 | D +27.0 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| MI-07 | D +1.9 | 58.5% D | Leans D |
| MI-08 | D +3.5 | 65.6% D | Leans D |
| MI-09 | R +31.9 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| MI-10 | R +2.6 | 59.8% R | Leans R |
| MI-11 | D +17.6 | 97.4% D | Likely D |
| MI-12 | D +45.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MI-13 | D +47.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MN-01 | R +11.8 | 87.6% R | Likely R |
| MN-02 | D +3.2 | 66.1% D | Leans D |
| MN-03 | D +16.4 | 96.7% D | Likely D |
| MN-04 | D +34.6 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| MN-05 | D +51.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MN-06 | R +22.0 | 97.7% R | Likely R |
| MN-07 | R +34.0 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| MN-08 | R +14.5 | 92.3% R | Likely R |
| MO-01 | D +52.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MO-02 | R +11.7 | 88.4% R | Likely R |
| MO-03 | R +28.7 | 99.1% R | Safe R |
| MO-04 | R +41.6 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| MO-05 | D +23.7 | 99.2% D | Safe D |
| MO-06 | R +40.6 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| MO-07 | R +42.9 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| MO-08 | R +52.7 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| MS-01 | R +36.7 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| MS-02 | D +23.0 | 99.1% D | Safe D |
| MS-03 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| MS-04 | R +41.7 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| MT-01 | R +8.3 | 77.5% R | Leans R |
| MT-02 | R +30.0 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| NC-01 | R +0.6 | 51.8% R | Leans R |
| NC-02 | D +31.9 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| NC-03 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| NC-04 | D +44.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NC-05 | R +18.5 | 95.7% R | Likely R |
| NC-06 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| NC-07 | R +14.3 | 92.0% R | Likely R |
| NC-08 | R +21.1 | 97.3% R | Likely R |
| NC-09 | R +17.0 | 94.7% R | Likely R |
| NC-10 | R +18.1 | 94.8% R | Likely R |
| NC-11 | R +12.9 | 88.4% R | Likely R |
| NC-12 | D +47.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NC-13 | R +20.6 | 97.1% R | Likely R |
| NC-14 | R +19.2 | 96.2% R | Likely R |
| ND-AL | R +36.4 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| NE-01 | R +14.1 | 91.6% R | Likely R |
| NE-02 | R +0.6 | 51.9% R | Leans R |
| NE-03 | R +55.4 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| NH-01 | D +4.4 | 70.7% D | Leans D |
| NH-02 | D +4.5 | 71.8% D | Leans D |
| NJ-01 | D +22.5 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| NJ-02 | R +10.0 | 85.1% R | Likely R |
| NJ-03 | D +9.5 | 87.6% D | Likely D |
| NJ-04 | R +28.2 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| NJ-05 | D +10.1 | 88.8% D | Likely D |
| NJ-06 | D +17.7 | 97.5% D | Likely D |
| NJ-07 | R +4.2 | 66.8% R | Leans R |
| NJ-08 | D +47.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NJ-09 | D +16.7 | 96.9% D | Likely D |
| NJ-10 | D +57.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NJ-11 | D +14.9 | 95.6% D | Likely D |
| NJ-12 | D +29.8 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| NM-01 | D +12.0 | 92.2% D | Likely D |
| NM-02 | D +3.2 | 65.9% D | Leans D |
| NM-03 | D +9.8 | 88.2% D | Likely D |
| NV-01 | D +6.3 | 78.4% D | Leans D |
| NV-02 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| NV-03 | D +4.6 | 72.0% D | Leans D |
| NV-04 | D +5.3 | 74.8% D | Leans D |
| NY-01 | R +7.0 | 77.1% R | Leans R |
| NY-02 | R +8.8 | 81.8% R | Likely R |
| NY-03 | D +8.6 | 85.5% D | Likely D |
| NY-04 | D +3.4 | 65.2% D | Leans D |
| NY-05 | D +55.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-06 | D +29.2 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| NY-07 | D +59.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-08 | D +51.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-09 | D +50.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-10 | D +68.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-11 | R +11.9 | 88.8% R | Likely R |
| NY-12 | D +66.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-13 | D +76.2 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-14 | D +48.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-15 | D +68.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-16 | D +36.2 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-17 | D +6.0 | 77.7% D | Leans D |
| NY-18 | D +4.8 | 73.0% D | Leans D |
| NY-19 | D +0.7 | 54.2% D | Leans D |
| NY-20 | D +14.9 | 95.6% D | Likely D |
| NY-21 | R +19.9 | 96.8% R | Likely R |
| NY-22 | D +6.4 | 79.0% D | Leans D |
| NY-23 | R +23.4 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| NY-24 | R +23.0 | 97.8% R | Likely R |
| NY-25 | D +14.7 | 95.4% D | Likely D |
| NY-26 | D +20.5 | 98.5% D | Safe D |
| OH-01 | D +6.2 | 78.1% D | Leans D |
| OH-02 | R +46.8 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| OH-03 | D +40.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| OH-04 | R +37.8 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| OH-05 | R +31.5 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| OH-06 | R +31.7 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| OH-07 | R +11.6 | 87.0% R | Likely R |
| OH-08 | R +25.8 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| OH-09 | R +0.8 | 52.7% R | Leans R |
| OH-10 | R +12.1 | 87.8% R | Likely R |
| OH-11 | D +55.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| OH-12 | R +34.9 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| OH-13 | D +3.9 | 67.7% D | Leans D |
| OH-14 | R +20.3 | 96.9% R | Likely R |
| OH-15 | R +10.5 | 86.2% R | Likely R |
| OK-01 | R +25.5 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| OK-02 | R +52.9 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| OK-03 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| OK-04 | R +34.4 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| OK-05 | R +19.5 | 96.2% R | Likely R |
| OR-01 | D +36.2 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| OR-02 | R +29.6 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| OR-03 | D +43.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| OR-04 | D +9.2 | 87.1% D | Likely D |
| OR-05 | D +2.5 | 62.8% D | Leans D |
| OR-06 | D +7.0 | 80.9% D | Likely D |
| PA-01 | R +5.9 | 71.8% R | Leans R |
| PA-02 | D +44.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| PA-03 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| PA-04 | D +16.1 | 96.5% D | Likely D |
| PA-05 | D +28.9 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| PA-06 | D +12.1 | 92.4% D | Likely D |
| PA-07 | R +1.9 | 57.4% R | Leans R |
| PA-08 | R +3.6 | 63.1% R | Leans R |
| PA-09 | R +38.5 | 99.9% R | Safe R |
| PA-10 | R +7.7 | 79.2% R | Leans R |
| PA-11 | R +24.3 | 98.3% R | Safe R |
| PA-12 | D +15.2 | 95.8% D | Likely D |
| PA-13 | R +47.9 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| PA-14 | R +34.6 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| PA-15 | R +39.4 | 99.9% R | Safe R |
| PA-16 | R +22.8 | 97.6% R | Likely R |
| PA-17 | D +6.1 | 77.0% D | Leans D |
| RI-01 | D +27.8 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| RI-02 | D +7.9 | 83.7% D | Likely D |
| SC-01 | R +11.4 | 87.1% R | Likely R |
| SC-02 | R +14.7 | 92.6% R | Likely R |
| SC-03 | R +40.1 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| SC-04 | R +23.0 | 98.0% R | Safe R |
| SC-05 | R +22.8 | 97.9% R | Likely R |
| SC-06 | D +27.9 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| SC-07 | R +23.3 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| SD-AL | R +29.3 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| TN-01 | R +55.6 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| TN-02 | R +33.2 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| TN-03 | R +35.1 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| TN-04 | R +39.8 | 99.9% R | Safe R |
| TN-05 | R +13.8 | 90.6% R | Likely R |
| TN-06 | R +31.8 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| TN-07 | R +19.4 | 96.5% R | Likely R |
| TN-08 | R +41.7 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| TN-09 | D +44.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-01 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| TX-02 | R +28.1 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| TX-03 | R +18.6 | 96.0% R | Likely R |
| TX-04 | R +29.7 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| TX-05 | R +26.0 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| TX-06 | R +27.1 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| TX-07 | D +25.4 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| TX-08 | R +31.3 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| TX-09 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| TX-10 | R +23.4 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| TX-11 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| TX-12 | R +22.7 | 97.9% R | Likely R |
| TX-13 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| TX-14 | R +32.8 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| TX-15 | R +6.1 | 74.3% R | Leans R |
| TX-16 | D +29.8 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| TX-17 | R +26.7 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| TX-18 | D +44.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-19 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| TX-20 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| TX-21 | R +23.3 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| TX-22 | R +21.0 | 97.3% R | Likely R |
| TX-23 | R +11.4 | 87.8% R | Likely R |
| TX-24 | R +16.9 | 94.7% R | Likely R |
| TX-25 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| TX-26 | R +22.0 | 97.6% R | Likely R |
| TX-27 | R +26.1 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| TX-28 | D +11.2 | 89.5% D | Likely D |
| TX-29 | D +38.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-30 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| TX-31 | R +25.2 | 98.6% R | Safe R |
| TX-32 | D +28.5 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| TX-33 | D +45.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-34 | D +11.4 | 91.2% D | Likely D |
| TX-35 | D +44.2 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-36 | R +35.0 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| TX-37 | D +49.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-38 | R +22.6 | 97.9% R | Likely R |
| UT-01 | R +25.3 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| UT-02 | R +20.6 | 97.1% R | Likely R |
| UT-03 | R +25.4 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| UT-04 | R +27.5 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| VA-01 | R +11.5 | 87.9% R | Likely R |
| VA-02 | R +1.3 | 55.2% R | Leans R |
| VA-03 | D +34.9 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| VA-04 | D +31.2 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| VA-05 | R +11.9 | 88.8% R | Likely R |
| VA-06 | R +25.9 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| VA-07 | D +2.5 | 62.6% D | Leans D |
| VA-08 | D +50.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| VA-09 | R +43.8 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| VA-10 | D +13.5 | 94.2% D | Likely D |
| VA-11 | D +37.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| VT-AL | D +34.4 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| WA-01 | D +26.5 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| WA-02 | D +19.7 | 98.3% D | Safe D |
| WA-03 | R +4.7 | 66.6% R | Leans R |
| WA-04 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| WA-05 | R +13.6 | 91.4% R | Likely R |
| WA-06 | D +12.6 | 93.1% D | Likely D |
| WA-07 | D +70.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| WA-08 | D +3.9 | 68.8% D | Leans D |
| WA-09 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| WA-10 | D +15.0 | 95.6% D | Likely D |
| WI-01 | R +7.1 | 77.6% R | Leans R |
| WI-02 | D +40.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| WI-03 | R +6.6 | 73.4% R | Leans R |
| WI-04 | D +50.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| WI-05 | R +26.6 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| WI-06 | R +19.7 | 96.6% R | Likely R |
| WI-07 | R +22.9 | 97.9% R | Likely R |
| WI-08 | R +19.0 | 96.2% R | Likely R |
| WV-01 | R +41.6 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| WV-02 | R +39.7 | 99.9% R | Safe R |
| WY-AL | R +44.8 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!