2024 Election Forecast

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The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2022.

The GOP is favored to win control of the Senate given a tough political map for the Democratic majority. Democrats currently hold seats in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, states that are expected to go Republican at the top of the ticket, and are defending key battleground states in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Republicans do not hold any seats that are closely contested at the presidential level. Led by outgoing leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republicans need to gain two seats to win an outright majority, and they are poised to easily flip the seat of the retiring Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and are favored to out Sen. Jon Tester (D) of Montana following the struggles of Democrats among rural voters in the now deep red state. While the Republicans are only defending red state seats, the possibility of a an upset loss by an unpopular incumbent remains in Florida, Nebraska, and Texas.

Note that these numbers account for the fact that Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are expected to continue to caucus with the Democrats.

We can put these state-by-state estimates together into an overall simulation of the whole Senate using the results of the 2020-NN-M model:

The median result is the Republicans winning 52-48.

The most likely result is the Republicans winning 52-48.

An 80% confidence interval ranges from Republicans winning 56-44 to a 50-50 tie.

For the sake of simplicity, I classified Dan Osborn's independent candidacy in Nebraska into the "Democrat" category. It remains unclear how Osborn, if elected, will caucus with a party if at all.

History

Key Races

Arizona (Leans D). Embattled incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) chose to forego reelection after leaving the Democrats following a long running standoff with the more liberal wing of the caucus on a range of policy positions, including a 2022 censure from the state party for opposing a special carve-out in the Senate filibuster. Running to replace Sen. Sinema are Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) from the Phoenix area and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R). Much of the focus of the campaign has been around the various controversies surrounding the staunchly pro-Trump Lake, including her refusal to concede her loss in the 2022 midterms. Although Lake has attempted to moderate her image and heal the divides with her own party, polls still show Lake trailing Rep. Gallego, who is far more to the left of Sen. Sinema. This race is a standoff between the partisans of both political parties, and moderate suburban voters are likely to determine the outcome of this race.

Florida (Likely R). Incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) faces reelection against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell from the Miami area. Sen. Scott rose to state politics from the private sector amidst the Tea Party wave of 2010 and has held statewide office ever since, first as Governor of Florida, then as Senator. True to his Tea Party roots, Scott has advocated for small government policies that the GOP has more broadly tried to distance itself from, and has ruffled the establishment by challenging the iron leadership of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) over the Senate GOP caucus. Scott is used to surviving by razor thin margins throughout his political career, including winning by 0.12 points against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson (D) in 2018. However, that was at a time when the Sunshine State was much more closely contested, and Florida today leans much more towards the GOP, which makes Scott the clear favorite to win.

Maryland (Likely D). Despite being a safe blue state at the presidential level, the Old Line State sees a more competitive than usual race with Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) facing off against popular former Gov. Larry Hogan (R). The Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin is retiring. While Gov. Hogan has run a moderate campaign distancing himself from President Trump and his policies and is expected to run well ahead of Trump statewide, he struggles to outrun Maryland's partisan lean against Alsobrooks. Alsobrooks remains a strong favorite to win, leaving Hogan to likely become the latest popular governor who failed to overcome partisanship in a federal Senate race, similar to Bob Kerrey (D-NE) in 2012, Evan Bayh (D-IN) in 2016, Phil Bredesen (D-TN) in 2018, and Steve Bullock (D-MT) in 2020.

Michigan (Leans D). With incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) retiring, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) faces former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). Both candidates have occupied a key swing district in the Lansing area in their political careers, and both candidates hail from more traditional and moderate wings of their parties. Polling shows Rep. Slotkin with a slight edge over Rep. Rogers, but this race has the potential to swing with any surprises at the top of the ticket in a key battleground state.

Montana (Likely R). Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) faces an uphill battle to hold on to his red-state Senate seat in a presidential year against businessman Tim Sheehy (R). Sen. Tester is used to surviving by close margins before, but Senate races in presidential cycles have seen a decline in split-ticket voting in recent years, and President Trump is expected to win Montana by a wide margin. The last time there was a Senate race in Montana, Sen. Steve Daines (R) easily beat Gov. Steve Bullock (D) despite initial polls showing a close race, and polls suggest that the same phenomenon will repeat next year. Sheehy has been polling an increasingly wider lead over Sen. Tester, which suggests that the GOP is on track to flip this seat. If Sen. Tester loses, it will end a long history of Democrats holding a Senate seat in Montana, including Mike Mansfield and Max Baucus. The last time no Democrat held either seat was in the 1910s. This is likely the 51st seat that the GOP will need for an outright majority, and all eyes are on Montana to see if the GOP will actually flip the Senate.

Nebraska (Likely R). Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is facing a spirited challenge from union leader Dan Osborn (I). Osborn is running as an independent, and the Democrats are not running their own nominee after their efforts to draft Osborn were unsuccessful. Since her initial election in 2012 by defeating former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), Sen. Fischer has kept a low profile in Washington, and her reelection bid has unexpectedly turned into a tight race in the polls. Meanwhile, Osborn is running a populist campaign appealing to anti-establishment sentiment in the Cornhusker State with a message to fix what he calls a broken system. However, Nebraska has a very strong GOP lean, and it may very well insulate Sen. Fischer from a stunning reelection loss.

Nevada (Leans D). Freshman incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is seeking reeelection against army veteran Sam Brown (R) in the Silver State. Despite GOP enthusiasm for Brown's candidacy, Sen. Rosen retains a polling lead and an edge in fundraising, and is bolstered by Nevada's light blue partisan lean and the pro-Democratic turnout machine built by the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Despite this, Nevada is a tough state to poll and the possibility of an upset is high, especially if President Trump manages to win the state.

Ohio (Leans R). Longtime incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for reelection against businessman Bernie Moreno (R). Despite the pro-Republican shift in the Ohio electorate following the rise of Trump, Sen. Brown has retained a populist economic appeal to traditional working class voters in Ohio in ways that national Democrats have not. Brown is expected to run ahead of the Vice President Harris in Ohio, though it remains a question of whether or not that will overcome Ohio's GOP partisan lean. Sen. Brown leads by small margins in most polls, but polls have missed swing voters in the Midwest in recent cycles. Ohio is considered a must-win seat for Democrats to have a shot a retaining the majority. With weak polling for an incumbent, Brown enters the election as a slight underdog for reelection, but this race remains anyone's game.

Pennsylvania (Leans D). Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) faces reelection against businessman David McCormick (R). With roots in both the political class and the working class of Pennsylvania, Sen. Casey is expected to perform better than Vice President Harris in Ohio. Democrats have been quick to paint McCormick as the out-of-touch Wall Street hedge fund manager with foreign business dealings in China, and that message might be enough to work in the Keystone State, especially given now-Sen. John Fetterman's winning message in the 2022 midterms. Polling suggests a consistent lead for Sen. Casey, any Trump overperformance among working class voters is enough to jeopardize that. Pennsylvania is considered a must-win state for Democrats to have a chance to hold their majority.

Texas (Leans R). Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) faces a spirited challenge from Rep. Colin Allred (D) from the Dallas area. While Democrats salivate at the prospect of knocking out a notable political nemesis in Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas remains a state with a distinctive GOP lean, and overcoming that is easier said than done. No Democrat has won a Senate seat in Texas since the reelection of Sen. Lloyd Bentson in 1988, although Rep. Beto O'Rourke came within 3 points of Cruz in 2018. Sen. Cruz holds a small but consistent leads in the polls, and the red lean of Texas is likely enough for Cruz to hold on despite his struggling popularity in the state.

West Virginia (Safe R). With incumbent Democrat-turned-indepedent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) retiring, the GOP is a sure bet to flip this Senate seat in a deep-red state. The Mountain State used to be among the most Democratic states in the country in the twentieth century following the New Deal policies of FDR until then-Gov. George W. Bush won West Virginia in an upset victory in the election of 2000. Democratic support in West Virginia has continued to decline alongside the deindustrialization and the fall of coal and labor unions of the state. Since the 2010s, the Democratic stronghold in statewide office has evaporated, leaving Sen. Manchin as the only remaining legacy of a bygone era. Popular Gov. Jim Justice (R), who was first elected to office as a Democrat, is widely expected to win, and his party-switching in 2017 represented another domino in the political transition of West Virginia. Assuming that Gov. Justice wins, it will be the first time that no Democrat has represents West Virginia in Congress since the Great Depression, and it will also end a long history of Democrats representing West Virginia in the Senate, among them Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller. Democrats have held this particular Senate seat since 1959 with the election of Robert Byrd.

Wisconsin (Leans D). Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is running for reelection against businessman Eric Hovde (R). Despite having more progressive policy issues, Sen. Baldwin has managed to stay connected to rural Wisconsin voters outside of the liberal Democratic base to avoid the fate of her twice-defeated counterpart, Sen. Russ Feingold (D), though Baldwin did have the advantage of running in pro-Democratic election cycles. Sen. Baldwin will need to continue that appeal to win reelection, particularly in southwestern Wisconsin, where many former Democratic voters have switched to Trump, and make inroads with traditionally Republican suburban voters in eastern Wisconsin. Sen. Baldwin has retained a polling edge, though polls in recent cycles have underestimated Republican support with President Trump on the ballot. Wisconsin is another must-win race for Democrats to have a realistic chance at keeping their majority. Most polls show a small lead for Sen. Baldwin, but if President Trump manages to overperform again in Wisconsin, then Baldwin's seat is in jeopardy.

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