The methodology used here will be a continuation of what I used in 2024.
This year features off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia on November 4. Both races are being heavily contested.
The outcome of these elections will be covered and modelled election night via an interactive web app, linked here.
| 24 Democrats | Republicans 26 |
New Jersey (Leans D). Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) faces off against former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) to replace term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D). Despite its reputation as a safe blue state historically, the Garden State has seen surprisingly close election results in recent years. In 2024, President Trump came within 6 points of Vice President Harris due to Trump overperforming in working class areas with high immigrant populations in the New York City metropolitan area, and in 2021, Ciattarelli was only 3 points away from defeating Gov. Murphy's reelection bid following nationwide backlash to prolonged COVID-19 restrictions imposed by governing Democrats. With deeper pockets, Ciattarelli is attempting to repeat this overperformance this year but faces stronger headwinds in an anti-Trump environment and a more battle-tested opponent in Rep. Sherrill, who has historically outperformed typical Democratic margins in suburban and exurban New Jersey. Rep. Sherrill is favored to win given the national environment and the still-blue partisan lean of New Jersey, though the possibility of a Ciattarelli upset remains.
Virginia (Likely D). With popular incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) term-limited, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is attempting to flip the governor's mansion for the Democrats, running against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R). Rep. Spanberger, who forewent reelection to the House in preparation for this run, has a strong track record with swing voters, while Gov. Youngkin's popularity has not transferred to Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears. Virginia's Democratic lean and disapproval of President Trump have made Rep. Spanberger a favorite, and Trump's impact on the federal workforce has been felt particularly hard in Northern Virginia. Polling indicates that this race is Spanberger's to lose, and the chance that Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears can pull an upset remains slim.
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!
| Candidate | Party |
| Mikie Sherrill | DEM |
| Jack Ciattarelli | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Sherrill +4.5 | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Sherrill +4.3 | Sherrill 80.1% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Abigail Spanberger | DEM |
| Winsome Earle-Sears | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Spanberger +8.7 | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Spanberger +7.6 | Spanberger 91.0% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |