The partisan lean of this year's Senate map makes the GOP a favorite to win a majority. Despite Democrats outperforming the generic ballot, they must net win four GOP seats. This means that the Democrats have ground to make up in at least two deep red states among Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, while also flipping Maine and North Carolina and holding Michigan. If the Democrats fall short of these targets, then the Republicans retain control. The odds are in favor of the GOP majority, but a Democratic upset in solid Republican territory is still possible.
This year's Senate forecast is a continuation of the methodology as in 2024.
47 Democrats
✔ Republicans 51
44
2
1
4
1
46
| 51 to win
Note that these numbers account for the fact that Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are expected to continue to caucus with the Democrats.
We can put these state-by-state estimates together into an overall simulation of the whole Senate using the results of the 2020-NN-M model:
Party
Probability
Democrats
23.5%
Republicans
49.1%
50-50 split
27.4%
The median result is the Republicans winning 50-50.
The most likely result is the Republicans winning 50-50.
An 80% confidence interval ranges from Republicans winning 52-48 to Democrats winning 51-49.
For simplicity, Dan Osborn's independent candidacy in Nebraska is sorted into the "Democrat" category. Osborn has not declared which caucus to ally with if elected.
History
Date
Probability
Rated
Expected
Median
Most Likely
DEM
TIE
GOP
DEM
GOP
DEM
GOP
DEM
GOP
DEM
GOP
08/21
23.5%
27.4%
49.1%
47
51
49.3
50.7
50
50
50
50
Key Races
Alaska (Leans R). Incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) faces a stiff challenge from former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the Last Frontier. While Alaska is a solid Republican state and Sen. Sullivan has retained strong approval ratings, Peltola has ran a spirited and well-backed campaign and has been elected statewide before. Peltola is hoping that the anti-GOP environment in addition to her brand of retail politics is enough to carry a Democratic victory in a rural state. However, the fundamentals of taking out a popular incumbent in politically unfriendly territory is a tall order even in a wave election, and Sen. Sullivan remains a favorite to win.
Georgia (Leans D). Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is seeking reelection in a battleground state against Rep. Mike Collins (R). Despite having narrowly been elected in a runoff in 2021, Sen. Ossoff has built a brand over the years in the Peach State among the now-solid bench of Democratic voters based in the metro Atlanta area, and the broader partisan environment is lifting Ossoff. Rep. Collins's campaign has not quite taken off in the way that's typical of Republicans in Georgia, and that's leaving Sen. Ossoff as a favorite.
Iowa (Leans R). Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is facing off against state Rep. Jack Turek (D) in a race to replace the retiring GOP incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R). Following President Obama's reelection in 2012, the collapse of support for Democrats among rural voters has effectively made the Hawkeye State out of reach for Democrats. This effect is particularly pronounced among traditionally Democratic voters in rural eastern Iowa. Intermittently throughout the past decade, polling numbers have given Democrats false hope of winning statewide elections. This year, the partisan lean of Iowa is likely too large for a Democrat to overcome, leaving Rep. Hinson the favorite to win.
Maine (Tossup). Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) is running for reelection against former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D). Despite being consistently Democratic at the presidential level, upper New England states have had a streak of nominating independent-minded politicians from the other party, which has kept Sen. Collins in the Senate since her first election in 1996. Democrats have tried to ride out blue waves in the past to defeat Collins, including in 2008 and 2020, but none have succeeded, but they are trying again this year. Meanwhile, the Democrats have been in disarray this year following the mishap of nominating progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner (D), who was forced to withdraw from the race following allegations of sexual misconduct. Polls indicate a dead heat between Sen. Collins and Jackson, but it is not difficult to imagine Sen. Collins beating the polls to politically survive yet again.
Michigan (Tossup). Doctor Abdul Al-Sayed (D) is running against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) to hold the seat of retiring incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D). Rep. Rogers is seeking to run for the Senate again after having narrowly lost two years ago in Michigan's other seat by a fraction of a point. Meanwhile, Al-Sayed is trying to unify the Democrats following a divisive primary in which he narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D), a political moderate. Al-Sayed is trying to pivot from his socialist political roots to win in a must-win race for the Democrats, and that has been a tall order in a purple state. The most recent polls indicate Rogers with a lead.
North Carolina (Likely D). Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is attempting to flip a GOP seat following the retirement of incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Gov. Cooper's challenger, former RNC chair Michael Whatley (R), has run an underwhelming campaign in a state that has been historically favorable to Republicans. Cooper retains statewide popularity following his two terms as governor and has had a history of winning despite President Trump carrying the Tar Heel State at the top of the ticket. Gov. Cooper is the clear favorite in the final stretch in the race, and this seat is the most likely to change hands this cycle.
Ohio (Leans R). Appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running in a special election following former Sen. J. D. Vance's (R) election to the Vice Presidency. Meanwhile, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is attempting a political comeback in a state that has become increasingly unfavorable to Democrats. In each of his previous elections, Brown rode a blue wave in a once-purple state with a strong base of union voters loyal to Democrats, but that ended with his reelection defeat in 2024 against now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Brown is perhaps the only Democrat remaining in Ohio capable of winning statewide, and he is making use of the political environment to reclaim a seat. Ohio is one of several states on the Democrat's path to a majority. Polls here indicate a dead heat.
Texas (Leans R). State Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) won an endorsement from President Trump to defeat longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) in a primary. Paxton has a history of political scandals and has been running as a right-wing hardliner, which Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is hoping to utilize to flip deep-red Texas blue. Winning Texas has been much of a white whale over the past decade for national Democrats, but they're hoping that this time the national attention and fundraising leads to a different outcome. Current polling indicates a lead for Paxton, which perhaps indicates that the Democrats' history in Texas may just be repeating itself this year.
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