In recent political history, gubernatorial elections have tended to more closely track with the partisan lean of the states and results have deviated less from baseline expectations. For example, the last midterm cycle in 2022 mostly produced the same map as the 2020 presidential election. That being said, exceptionally popular incumbent governors have continued to outperform the partisan defaults moreso than other political offices. The opposite can also be said about governors with low approval ratings. This year, I am mostly expecting states to go the way of the blue state-red state divide and I do not anticipate too many surprises.
The methodology for this midterm cycle is the same as that in 2024.
| 22 Democrats | Republicans 25 |
Georgia (Tossup). Businessman Rick Jackson (R) and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) are running to replace term-limited incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R). In recent years, statewide Republicans have struggled to match Gov. Kemp's popularity and traditional GOP strength in the Atlanta suburbs has continued to decline. A particular fissure among Republican politicians that has grown surrounds President Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the Peach State. Democrats have repeatedly invested in winning statewide in Georgia for over the past decade but only recently started having success in Senate races. Polls indicate a tight race, and this year is perhaps the Democrats' best chance at winning a gubernatorial election since their last win in 1998.
Iowa (Tossup). Businessman Zach Lahn (R) and state auditor Rob Sand (D) are running to replace the retiring incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). Despite being a red state, Gov. Reynolds's approval ratings plummeted during the pandemic and continues to have among the worst approval ratings of all sitting US governors. General dissatisfaction with Republican governance in Iowa is at its highest point since perhaps the 2018 midterms, and Democrats have a particularly strong candidate in Rob Sand, who is the only remaining statewide officeholder in Iowa following the rural Midwestern state's transition from a battleground state to a solid red state.
Wisconsin (Tossup). Milwaukee County executive David Crowley (D) is running against Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) to replace the retiring incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D). Wisconsin's governors have seesawed between the parties over the years, and the Democratic nominee Crowley emerged from a divisive primary race. Polling is indicate a close race with perhaps Crowley with a narrow lead, but a GOP upset here remains a possibility.
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!
| Candidate | Party |
| Tommy Tuberville | GOP |
| Doug Jones | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bernadette Wilson | GOP |
| Tom Begich | DEM |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Katie Hobbs* | DEM |
| Andy Biggs | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders* | GOP |
| Fredrick Love | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Xavier Becerra | DEM |
| Steve Hilton | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Phil Weiser | DEM |
| Victor Marx | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ned Lamont* | DEM |
| Ryan Fazio | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Byron Donalds | GOP |
| David Jolly | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Jackson | GOP |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Green* | DEM |
| Gary Cordery | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Little* | GOP |
| Terri Pickens | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| J.B. Pritzker* | DEM |
| Darren Bailey | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Zach Lahn | GOP |
| Rob Sand | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ty Masterson | GOP |
| Cindy Holscher | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hannah Pingree | DEM |
| Robert B. Charles | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Wes Moore* | DEM |
| Dan Cox | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maura Healey* | DEM |
| Mike Minogue | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jocelyn Benson | DEM |
| John James | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Amy Klobuchar | DEM |
| Lisa Demuth | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Pillen* | GOP |
| Lynne Walz | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Lombardo* | GOP |
| Aaron Ford | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kelly Ayotte* | GOP |
| Cinde Warmington | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Deb Haaland | DEM |
| Gregg Hull | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kathy Hochul* | DEM |
| Bruce Blakeman | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | GOP |
| Amy Acton | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Mazzei | GOP |
| Cyndi Munso | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tina Kotek* | DEM |
| Christine Drazan | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Shapiro* | DEM |
| Stacy Garrity | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Daniel McKee* | DEM |
| Aaron Guckian | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alan Wilson | GOP |
| Jermaine Johnson | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Larry Rhoden | GOP |
| Dan Ahlers | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marsha Blackburn | GOP |
| Jerri Green | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Abbott* | GOP |
| Gina Hinojosa | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Phil Scott* | GOP |
| Amanda Janoo | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Crowley | DEM |
| Tom Tiffany | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Barlow | GOP |
| Kenneth Casner | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |