In recent political history, gubernatorial elections have tended to more closely track with the partisan lean of the states and results have deviated less from baseline expectations. For example, the last midterm cycle in 2022 mostly produced the same map as the 2020 presidential election. That being said, exceptionally popular incumbent governors have continued to outperform the partisan defaults moreso than other political offices. The opposite can also be said about governors with low approval ratings. This year, I am mostly expecting states to go the way of the blue state-red state divide and I do not anticipate too many surprises.
The methodology for this midterm cycle is the same as that in 2024.
| 25 Democrats | Republicans 24 |
Alaska (Leans D). Despite that no Democrat has been elected governor in the Last Frontier since 1998, a combination of an unpopular term-limited Republican incumbent, Alaska's unique ranked choice voting system, Alaska's tendency towards independent minded candidates, and an anti-GOP national mood poses a strong challenge to that history. This year's ballot features one Democrat and three Republicans on the final ballot after the second-place Democrat finisher dropped out. No candidate hails from strong statewide political experience, and current polling indicates Democrats consolidating behind former state house Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins while Republicans splitting among the three GOP candidates. This combination may lead to the event where Republicans do not rank all of the GOP candidates and allow Kreiss-Tomkins to win with a plurality of the vote.
Georgia (Leans R). Businessman Rick Jackson (R) and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) are running to replace term-limited incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R). In recent years, statewide Republicans have struggled to match Gov. Kemp's popularity and traditional GOP strength in the Atlanta suburbs has continued to decline. A particular fissure among Republican politicians that has grown surrounds President Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the Peach State. Democrats have repeatedly invested in winning statewide in Georgia for over the past decade but only recently started having success in Senate races. Polls indicate a tight race, and this year is perhaps the Democrats' best chance at winning a gubernatorial election since their last win in 1998.
Iowa (Likely D). Businessman Zach Lahn (R) and state auditor Rob Sand (D) are running to replace the retiring incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). Despite being a red state, Gov. Reynolds's approval ratings plummeted during the pandemic and continues to have among the worst approval ratings of all sitting US governors. General dissatisfaction with Republican governance in Iowa is at its highest point since perhaps the 2018 midterms, and Democrats have a particularly strong candidate in Rob Sand, who is the only remaining statewide officeholder in Iowa following the rural Midwestern state's transition from a battleground state to a solid red state. Sand has been consistently polling large leads and enters the election as the favorite.
Nevada (Leans R). Incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is seeking a second term against state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D). Continued inflation and economic stagnation have hit Nevada hard, and Nevada elections have a history of being particularly sensitive to economic conditions. While the national midterm environment favors Democrats, especially in purple states like Nevada, Gov. Lombardo has maintained strong approval ratings, and popular incumbents tend to not lose reelection. Meanwhile, polling has been scarce and the Silver State has had a historical tendency for polling misses, and the outcome of this race remains highly uncertain.
Ohio (Tossup). Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (R) is running against former state Department of Health Director Amy Acton (D) to replace the popular term-limited incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Despite the red lean of the Buckeye State, polls have indicated a close election between the candidates. Two factors are in play: the Republican nominee comes from no previous political experience other than a failed presidential campaign in 2024, and the anti-GOP mood that's felt particularly strongly in the Midwest. Despite that, it is more likely than not that Ohio's partisan lean still tips the scales in favor of a Ramaswamy win.
Oregon (Leans D). Incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is running for reelection in a rematch against state Sen. Christine Drazan (R). Despite Oregon being a blue state, Gov. Kotek won the governorship narrowly in 2022 and has posted consistently low approval ratings. Voter discontent with Democrats running the state has run high over the past decade, but the state's partisan lean has consistently carried Democratic candidates to small victories. Polling seems to suggest that this phenomenon is likely to repeat itself this year.
Wisconsin (Leans D). Milwaukee County executive David Crowley (D) is running against Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) to replace the retiring incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D). Wisconsin's governors have seesawed between the parties over the years, and the Democratic nominee Crowley emerged from a divisive primary race. Polling is indicate a close race with perhaps Crowley with a narrow lead, but a GOP upset here remains a possibility.
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!
| Candidate | Party |
| Tommy Tuberville | GOP |
| Doug Jones | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | DEM |
| Bernadette Wilson | GOP |
| Dave Bronson | GOP |
| Candice English | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Kreiss-Tomkins 99.9% |
| 2018-LAD | Kreiss-Tomkins +7 | -- |
| 2012 | Kreiss-Tomkins +6.6 | -- |
| 2018-M | Kreiss-Tomkins +7 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Kreiss-Tomkins +6.0 | Kreiss-Tomkins 82.5% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Kreiss-Tomkins 97.6% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Katie Hobbs* | DEM |
| Andy Biggs | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Hobbs 90.7% |
| 2018-LAD | Hobbs +15 | -- |
| 2012 | Hobbs +12.2 | -- |
| 2018-M | Hobbs +8 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Hobbs +11.1 | Hobbs 94.1% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Hobbs 99.1% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders* | GOP |
| Fredrick Love | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Xavier Becerra | DEM |
| Steve Hilton | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Becerra >99.9% |
| 2018-LAD | Becerra +23.5 | -- |
| 2012 | Becerra +23.5 | -- |
| 2018-M | Becerra +25 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Becerra +21.0 | Becerra 99.0% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Becerra >99.9% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Phil Weiser | DEM |
| Victor Marx | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ned Lamont* | DEM |
| Ryan Fazio | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Lamont 99.0% |
| 2018-LAD | Lamont +18 | -- |
| 2012 | Lamont +17.8 | -- |
| 2018-M | Lamont +20 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Lamont +17.1 | Lamont 97.8% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Lamont >99.9% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Byron Donalds | GOP |
| David Jolly | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Donalds 84.3% |
| 2018-LAD | Donalds +7 | -- |
| 2012 | Donalds +6.5 | -- |
| 2018-M | Donalds +5 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Donalds +7.6 | Donalds 93.7% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Donalds 91.2% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Jackson | GOP |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Jackson 62.6% |
| 2018-LAD | Jackson +1 | -- |
| 2012 | Jackson +1.3 | -- |
| 2018-M | Jackson +2 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Jackson +2.6 | Jackson 70.6% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Jackson 76.0% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Green* | DEM |
| Gary Cordery | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Little* | GOP |
| Terri Pickens | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| J.B. Pritzker* | DEM |
| Darren Bailey | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Zach Lahn | GOP |
| Rob Sand | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Sand 95.1% |
| 2018-LAD | Sand +8 | -- |
| 2012 | Sand +7.5 | -- |
| 2018-M | Sand +8 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Sand +7.2 | Sand 87.2% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Sand 97.1% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ty Masterson | GOP |
| Cindy Holscher | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Masterson 87.3% |
| 2018-LAD | Masterson +6 | -- |
| 2012 | Masterson +5.6 | -- |
| 2018-M | Masterson +7 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Masterson +7.2 | Masterson 91.2% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Masterson 93.7% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hannah Pingree | DEM |
| Robert B. Charles | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Pingree 91.5% |
| 2018-LAD | Pingree +10.5 | -- |
| 2012 | Pingree +11.1 | -- |
| 2018-M | Pingree +12 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Pingree +10.2 | Pingree 92.5% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Pingree 97.8% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Wes Moore* | DEM |
| Dan Cox | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maura Healey* | DEM |
| Mike Minogue | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jocelyn Benson | DEM |
| John James | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Benson 87.3% |
| 2018-LAD | Benson +4.5 | -- |
| 2012 | Benson +4.8 | -- |
| 2018-M | Benson +6 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Benson +4.0 | Benson 75.5% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Benson 86.2% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Amy Klobuchar | DEM |
| Lisa Demuth | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Klobuchar 87.4% |
| 2018-LAD | Klobuchar +7 | -- |
| 2012 | Klobuchar +8.2 | -- |
| 2018-M | Klobuchar +9 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Klobuchar +7.5 | Klobuchar 87.3% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Klobuchar 92.0% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Pillen* | GOP |
| Lynne Walz | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Lombardo* | GOP |
| Aaron Ford | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Ford 50.4% |
| 2018-LAD | Tie | -- |
| 2012 | Lombardo +0.4 | -- |
| 2018-M | Lombardo +2 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Lombardo +4.5 | Lombardo 82.1% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Lombardo 78.4% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kelly Ayotte* | GOP |
| Cinde Warmington | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Ayotte 94.5% |
| 2018-LAD | Ayotte +8.5 | -- |
| 2012 | Ayotte +8.4 | -- |
| 2018-M | Ayotte +8 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Ayotte +10.1 | Ayotte 95.9% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Ayotte 99.0% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Deb Haaland | DEM |
| Gregg Hull | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Haaland 83.0% |
| 2018-LAD | Haaland +6.5 | -- |
| 2012 | Haaland +6.6 | -- |
| 2018-M | Haaland +7 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Haaland +5.4 | Haaland 81.3% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Haaland 83.6% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kathy Hochul* | DEM |
| Bruce Blakeman | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Hochul 99.9% |
| 2018-LAD | Hochul +12 | -- |
| 2012 | Hochul +12.3 | -- |
| 2018-M | Hochul +13 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Hochul +11.0 | Hochul 92.8% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Hochul 99.3% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | GOP |
| Amy Acton | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Acton 71.0% |
| 2018-LAD | Acton +5 | -- |
| 2012 | Acton +3.0 | -- |
| 2018-M | Acton +5 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Acton +2.1 | Acton 66.3% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Acton 81.4% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Mazzei | GOP |
| Cyndi Munson | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tina Kotek* | DEM |
| Christine Drazan | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Kotek 52.0% |
| 2018-LAD | Tie | -- |
| 2012 | Kotek +0.4 | -- |
| 2018-M | Tie | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Shapiro* | DEM |
| Stacy Garrity | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Shapiro >99.9% |
| 2018-LAD | Shapiro +25 | -- |
| 2012 | Shapiro +26.1 | -- |
| 2018-M | Shapiro +23 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Shapiro +23.0 | Shapiro 99.4% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Shapiro >99.9% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Helena Foulkes | DEM |
| Aaron Guckian | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alan Wilson | GOP |
| Jermaine Johnson | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Larry Rhoden | GOP |
| Dan Ahlers | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marsha Blackburn | GOP |
| Jerri Green | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Abbott* | GOP |
| Gina Hinojosa | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Abbott 89.0% |
| 2018-LAD | Abbott +3 | -- |
| 2012 | Abbott +3.8 | -- |
| 2018-M | Abbott +4 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Abbott +4.3 | Abbott 81.8% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Abbott 85.0% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Phil Scott* | GOP |
| Amanda Janoo | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Crowley | DEM |
| Tom Tiffany | GOP |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | Crowley 77.1% |
| 2018-LAD | Crowley +4.5 | -- |
| 2012 | Crowley +4.0 | -- |
| 2018-M | Crowley +5 | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | Crowley +3.3 | Crowley 72.2% |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | Crowley 72.5% |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Barlow | GOP |
| Kenneth Casner | DEM |
| Model | Spread | Probability |
| 2018-OLS | -- | -- |
| 2018-LAD | -- | -- |
| 2012 | -- | -- |
| 2018-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-M | -- | -- |
| 2020-NN-P | -- | -- |