The House model for this year is the same as for 2024. This model held up reasonably well during the last election, and I'm hoping for a repeat this year.
The Democrats are hoping capture President Trump's historically high disapproval ratings to flip the House majority. The Republicans are counting on mid-cycle partisan redistricting to attempt to hold on to a few extra seats. The current polling environment favors the Democrats, but a GOP upset is well within the margin of error.
There is a fair amount of divergence in the outcome of this model compared to other models and prediction markets. This can be explained by the adjustments made to the model after the 2022 midterms, which saw the Democrats nearly upsetting the GOP despite the GOP winning the generic ballot comfortably due to most of GOP popular vote gains concentrated in safe districts. The model is factoring in a GOP upset due to two reasons. The first reason is that a systematic nationwide polling error has the potential to erase the Democratic advantage in the national popular vote, especially following mid-cycle redistricting this year. The second reason is that it remains possible that Democratic gains are concentrated in either solid Democratic areas that shifted to being less blue in the last two cycles or in solid Republican areas where polls have shown Democrats gaining. While the expectation is that neither of these events will simultaneously happen such that there is a significant enough effect to keep the House in GOP control, the model is accounting for the possibility that this might happen.
| Party | Probability | Expected | Rated |
| Democrats | 77.8% | 237.3 | 231 |
| Republicans | 22.2% | 197.7 | 204 |
Popular vote: Democrats +7.5
| Date | Popular Vote |
Probability | Expected | Rated | |||
| DEM | GOP | DEM | GOP | DEM | GOP | ||
| 10/25 | D +7.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% | 237.3 | 197.7 | 231 | 204 |
| 10/14 | D +7.6 | 76.0% | 24.0% | 238.0 | 197.0 | 231 | 204 |
| 10/08 | D +7.2 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 236.4 | 198.6 | 230 | 205 |
| 10/02 | D +7.6 | 76.0% | 24.0% | 238.0 | 197.0 | 231 | 204 |
| 09/19 | D +7.9 | 77.0% | 23.0% | 239.4 | 195.6 | 236 | 199 |
| 09/06 | D +5.0 | 58.2% | 41.8% | 227.0 | 208.0 | 224 | 211 |
| 08/15 | D +6.1 | 62.2% | 37.8% | 231.0 | 204.0 | 225 | 210 |
| 231 Democrats | Republicans 204 |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nick Begich | REP |
| Eric Hafner | DEM |
| Bill Hill | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jerry Carl | REP |
| Clyde Jones | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rhett Marques | REP |
| Shomari Figures | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Rogers | REP |
| Lee McInnis | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Robert Aderholt | REP |
| Amanda Pusczek | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dale Strong | REP |
| Andrew Sneed | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gary Palmer | REP |
| Maurice Mercer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Terri Sewell | DEM |
| Ammie Akin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Crawford | REP |
| Terri Yarbrough Green | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| French Hill | REP |
| Chris Jones | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steve Womack | REP |
| Robb Ryerse | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bruce Westerman | REP |
| James Russell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Amish Shah | DEM |
| Jay Feely | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eli Crane | REP |
| Jonathan Nez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Stanton | DEM |
| Zuhdi Jasser | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Lamb | REP |
| Elizabeth Lee | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| JoAnna Mendoza | DEM |
| Juan Ciscomani | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adelita Grijalva | DEM |
| Daniel Butierez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Abraham Hamadeh | REP |
| Bernadette Greene-Placentia | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Paul Gosar | REP |
| Danielle Sterbinsky | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike McGuire | DEM |
| James Gallagher | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jared Huffman | DEM |
| Robin Littau | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ami Bera | DEM |
| Robb Tucker | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Jones | DEM |
| Mike Thompson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Masuda | DEM |
| Tom McClintock | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Garamendi | DEM |
| Rudy Recile | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Harder | DEM |
| John McBride | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark DeSaulnier | DEM |
| Jeff Frese | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adam Gray | DEM |
| Kevin Lincoln | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kevin Mullin | DEM |
| Charles Hoelter | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sam Liccardo | DEM |
| Peter Sundin Soule | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ro Khanna | DEM |
| Ritesh Tandon | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Zoe Lofgren | DEM |
| Shane Lewis | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jimmy Panetta | DEM |
| Peter Verbica | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Vince Fong | REP |
| Sandra Van Scotter | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Costa | DEM |
| Kyle Kirkland | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Valadao | REP |
| Randy Villegas | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jay Obernolte | REP |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Salud Carbajal | DEM |
| Bob Smith | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Raul Ruiz | DEM |
| Joe Males | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jacqui Irwin | DEM |
| Sam Gallucci | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| George Whitesides | DEM |
| Jason Gibbs | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Judy Chu | DEM |
| April Verlato | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laura Friedman | DEM |
| Scott Meyers | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gil Cisneros | DEM |
| Eric Ching | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Sherman | DEM |
| Larry Thompson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pete Aguilar | DEM |
| Stephanie Vargas | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Norma Torres | DEM |
| Mike Cargile | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ted Lieu | DEM |
| Houston Brignano | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hilda Solis | DEM |
| Pedro Antonio Casas | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Takano | DEM |
| Steve Manos | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Linda Sanchez | DEM |
| Mitch Clemmons | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Robert Garcia | DEM |
| Brian Burley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maxine Waters | DEM |
| Cristian Morales | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nanette Barragan | DEM |
| Genevieve Angel | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Derek Tran | DEM |
| Chuong Vo | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lou Correa | DEM |
| David Pan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dave Min | DEM |
| Jenny Le Roux | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marni von Wilpert | DEM |
| Jim Desmond | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Levin | DEM |
| Armen Kurdian | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Peters | DEM |
| Steve Cohen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sara Jacobs | DEM |
| Richardo Cabrera | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Juan Vargas | DEM |
| Jeff Belle | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Melat Kiros | DEM |
| Christy Peterson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Neguse | DEM |
| Kelley Dennison | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dwayne Romero | DEM |
| Jeff Hurd | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lauren Boebert | REP |
| Eileen Laubacher | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jessica Killin | DEM |
| Jeff Crank | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jason Crow | DEM |
| Jason Clark | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brittany Pettersen | DEM |
| Tim Bennett | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Manny Rutinel | DEM |
| Gabe Evans | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Luke Bronin | DEM |
| Amy Chai | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Courtney | DEM |
| George Austin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rosa DeLauro | DEM |
| Chris Lancia | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Himes | DEM |
| Michael Goldstein | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jahana Hayes | DEM |
| Chris Shea | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah McBride | DEM |
| Joseph Arminio | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jimmy Patronis | REP |
| Gay Valimont | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Austin Rogers | REP |
| Amanda Green | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kat Cammack | REP |
| Seth Harp | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Aaron Bean | REP |
| LaShonda Holloway | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Rutherford | REP |
| Rachel Grage | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Randy Fine | REP |
| Eric Yonce | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ryan Elijah | REP |
| Bale Dalton | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Haridopolos | REP |
| Jennifer Jenkins | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Green | REP |
| Darren Soto | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Strada | REP |
| James Pericola | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gus Bilirakis | REP |
| Kimberly Overman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Anna Paulina Luna | REP |
| Leela Gray | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Beltran | REP |
| Kathy Castor | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laurel Lee | REP |
| Robert People | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sydney Gruters | REP |
| Kelly Kirschner | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Steube | REP |
| Matthew Montavon | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Franklin | REP |
| Curtis Gibson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Schwartzel | REP |
| Victor Arias | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | DEM |
| Brent Andersen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Mast | REP |
| James Martin | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Casey Askar | REP |
| Pia Dandiya | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lois Frankel | DEM |
| Deborah Adeimy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Oliver Gilbert | DEM |
| Te Mayonna Brown | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Singer | REP |
| Jared Moskowitz | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mario Diaz-Balart | REP |
| Nicole Locklin | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | REP |
| Elliot Rodriguez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Carlos A. Gimenez | REP |
| Phil Ehr | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Kingston | REP |
| Amanda Hollowell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sanford Bishop | DEM |
| Matt Day | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Jack | REP |
| Maura Keller | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hank Johnson | DEM |
| James Duffie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nikema Williams | DEM |
| John Salvesen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lucy McBath | DEM |
| Kevin Martin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rich McCormick | REP |
| Tony Kozycki | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Austin Scott | REP |
| Kelly Esti | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andrew Clyde | REP |
| Caitlyn Gegen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Houston Gaines | REP |
| Pam Delancy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Cowan | REP |
| Chris Harden | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Allen | REP |
| Ceretta Smith | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jasmine Clark | DEM |
| Jonathan Chavez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Clay Fuller | REP |
| Shawn Harris | DEM |
| Andrew Underwood | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ed Case | DEM |
| Adriel Lam | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jill Tokuda | DEM |
| Brenton Awa | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Christina Bohannan | DEM |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lindsay James | DEM |
| Joe Mitchell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah Trone Garriott | DEM |
| Zach Nunn | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris McGowan | REP |
| David Dawson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Russ Fulcher | REP |
| Kaylee Peterson | DEM |
| Sarah Zabel | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Simpson | REP |
| Ellie Gilbreath | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jonathan Jackson | DEM |
| Christian Maxwell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Donna Miller | DEM |
| Michael Noack | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Delia Ramirez | DEM |
| Angel Oakley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Patty Garcia | DEM |
| Lupe Castillo | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Quigley | DEM |
| Tommy Hanson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sean Casten | DEM |
| Niki Conforti | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| La Shawn Ford | DEM |
| Chad Koppie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Melissa Bean | DEM |
| Jennifer Davis | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Daniel Biss | DEM |
| John Elleson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Schneider | DEM |
| Carl Lambrecht | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bill Foster | DEM |
| Jeff Walter | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Bost | REP |
| Julie Fortier | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nikki Budzinski | DEM |
| Jeff Wilson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lauren Underwood | DEM |
| James Marter | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mary Miller | REP |
| Jennifer Todd | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Darin LaHood | REP |
| Paul Nolley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Sorensen | DEM |
| Dillan Vancil | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frank Mrvan | DEM |
| Barb Regnitz | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rudolph Yakym | REP |
| Jamee Decio | DEM |
| William Henry | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marlin Stutzman | REP |
| Kelly Thompson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Baird | REP |
| Drew Cox | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Victoria Spartz | REP |
| J. D. Ford | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jefferson Shreve | REP |
| Cinde Wirth | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andre Carson | DEM |
| Patrick McAuley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Messmer | REP |
| Mary Allen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Erin Houchin | REP |
| Brad Meyer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tracey Mann | REP |
| Lauren Reinhold | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Derek Schmidt | REP |
| Don Coover | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sharice Davids | DEM |
| Eric Jenkins | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ron Estes | REP |
| Katy Tyndell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| James Comer | REP |
| Drew Williams | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brett Guthrie | REP |
| Megan Wingfield | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Morgan McGarvey | DEM |
| Maria Rodriquez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ed Gallrein | REP |
| Melissa Strange | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hal Rogers | REP |
| Ned Pillersdorf | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ralph Alvarado | REP |
| Zach Dembo | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steve Scalise | REP |
| Lauren Jewett | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Carter | DEM |
| Peter Williams | REP |
| Lisa Ballay | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tia LeBrun | DEM |
| John Day | DEM |
| Clay Higgins | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Matt Gromlich | DEM |
| Conrad Cable | DEM |
| Mike Johnson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Echols | REP |
| Dan McKay | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Blake Miguez | REP |
| Lindsay Garcia | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lori Trahan | DEM |
| Gary Grossi | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jake Auchincloss | DEM |
| Tom Stalcup | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Koh | DEM |
| Micah Jones | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Stephen Lynch | DEM |
| Robert Burke | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bill Keating | DEM |
| Tyler MacAllister | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andy Harris | REP |
| Dan Schwartz | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Johnny Olszewski | DEM |
| Dave Wallace | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sarah Elfreth | DEM |
| Berney Flowers | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Glenn Ivey | DEM |
| George McDermott | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adrian Boafo | DEM |
| Chris Chaffee | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| April McClain-Delaney | DEM |
| Robin Ficker | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kweisi Mfume | DEM |
| Scott Collier | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jamie Raskin | DEM |
| Cheryl Riley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chellie Pingree | DEM |
| Ronald Russell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Matthew Dunlap | DEM |
| Paul LePage | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jack Bergman | REP |
| Callie Barr | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Moolenaar | REP |
| Ben Ambrose | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hillary Scholten | DEM |
| Terri DeBoer | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sean McCann | DEM |
| Bill Huizenga | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Walberg | REP |
| Christian Vukasovich | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Debbie Dingell | DEM |
| Heather Smiley | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| William Lawrence | DEM |
| Tom Barrett | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | DEM |
| Tom Smith | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lisa McClain | REP |
| Ray Pooley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Christina Hines | DEM |
| Michael Bouchard Jr. | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jeremy Moss | DEM |
| Ethan Baker | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rashida Tlaib | DEM |
| James Hooper | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Donavan McKinney | DEM |
| T.P. Nykoriak | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Finstad | REP |
| Jake Johnson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Matt Little | DEM |
| Eric Pratt | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kelly Morrison | DEM |
| Tyler Bass | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Betty McCollum | DEM |
| Paul Wikstrom | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ilhan Omar | DEM |
| John Nagel | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Emmer | REP |
| Doug Chapin | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michelle Fischbach | REP |
| Erik Osberg | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pete Stauber | REP |
| Trina Swanson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Wesley Bell | DEM |
| Paul Berry | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Fred Wellman | DEM |
| Ann Wagner | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Onder | REP |
| Bethany Mann | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Alford | REP |
| Jordan Herrera | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Emanuel Cleaver | DEM |
| Rick Brattin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Stigall | REP |
| Josh Smead | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Burlison | REP |
| Missi Hesketh | DEM |
| Kevin Craig | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jason Smith | REP |
| Chris Reichard | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Trent Kelly | REP |
| Cliff Johnson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bennie Thompson | DEM |
| Ron Eller | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Guest | REP |
| Michael Chiaradio | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Ezell | REP |
| Jeffrey Hulum III | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Aaron Flint | REP |
| Sam Forstag | DEM |
| Nick Sheehy | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Downing | REP |
| Brian Miller | DEM |
| Michael Eisenhauer | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laurie Buckhout | REP |
| Don Davis | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Deborah Ross | DEM |
| Gene Douglass | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Murphy | REP |
| Raymond Smith Jr. | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Valerie Foushee | DEM |
| Max Ganorkar | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Virginia Foxx | REP |
| Chuck Hubbard | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Addison McDowell | REP |
| Cyril Jefferson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Rouzer | REP |
| Kim Hardy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Harris | REP |
| Colby Watson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Richard Hudson | REP |
| Richard Ojeda | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pat Harrigan | REP |
| Ashley Bell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jamie Ager | DEM |
| Jennifer Balkcom | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alma Adams | DEM |
| Jack Codiga | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Knott | REP |
| Paul Barringer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Moore | REP |
| LaKesha Womack | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Julie Fedorchak | REP |
| Trygve Hammer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Flood | REP |
| Chris Backemeyer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Denise Powell | DEM |
| Brinker Harding | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adrian Smith | REP |
| Becky Stille | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Stefany Shaheen | DEM |
| Anthony DiLorenzo | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maggie Goodlander | DEM |
| Lily Tang Williams | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Donald Norcross | DEM |
| Damon Galdo | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jeff Van Drew | REP |
| Zack Mullock | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Herb Conaway | DEM |
| Michael McGuire | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Smith | REP |
| Rachel Peace | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Gottheimer | DEM |
| Sean Kirrane | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frank Pallone | DEM |
| Hillary Herzig | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rebecca Bennett | DEM |
| Thomas Kean Jr | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nellie A. Pou | DEM |
| Rosie Pino | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| LaMonica McIver | DEM |
| Carmen Bucco | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Analilia Mejia | DEM |
| Joe Hathaway | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adam Hamawy | DEM |
| Gregg Mele | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Melanie Stansbury | DEM |
| Didi Okpareke | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gabriel Vasquez | DEM |
| Greg Cunningham | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez | DEM |
| Martin Zamora | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dina Titus | DEM |
| Carrie Buck | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Flippo | REP |
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Susie Lee | DEM |
| Martin O'Donnell | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steven Horsford | DEM |
| Cody Whipple | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nick LaLota | REP |
| Chris Gallant | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andrew Garbarino | REP |
| Patrick Halpin | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Thomas Suozzi | DEM |
| Michael LiPetri | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Laura Gillen | DEM |
| Jeanine Driscoll | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gregory Meeks | DEM |
| George Marsh | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Grace Meng | DEM |
| Joseph Chou | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Claire Valdez | DEM |
| Melvin Rivera | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Hakeem Jeffries | DEM |
| Lewis Mizrahi | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Yvette Clarke | DEM |
| Joel Anabilah-Azumah | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brad Lander | DEM |
| Jennifer Moore | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nicole Malliotakis | REP |
| Michael DeCillis | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Micah Lasher | DEM |
| Caroline Shinkle | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Darializa Avila Chevalier | DEM |
| Jomo M. Williams | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | DEM |
| Diamant Hysenaj | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ritchie Torres | DEM |
| Stylo Sapaskis | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| George Latimer | DEM |
| Joseph Cinquemani | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Cait Conley | DEM |
| Mike Lawler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pat Ryan | DEM |
| Jacqueline Auringer | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Riley | DEM |
| Peter Oberacker | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Paul Tonko | DEM |
| Ralph Ambrosio | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Anthony Constantino | REP |
| Blake Gendebien | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Mannion | DEM |
| Kailee Buller | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nick Langworthy | REP |
| Aaron Gies | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Claudia Tenney | REP |
| Alissa Ellman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joseph Morelle | DEM |
| Virginia McIntyre | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Kennedy | DEM |
| Dennis Hannon | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Landsman | DEM |
| Eric Conroy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Taylor | REP |
| Jennifer Mazzuckelli | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joyce Beatty | DEM |
| Cleophus Dulaney | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Jordan | REP |
| Joshua Kolasinski | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Latta | REP |
| Brian Shaver | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Rulli | REP |
| Elizabeth Kirtley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Max Miller | REP |
| Brian Poindexter | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Warren Davidson | REP |
| Vanessa Enoch | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marcy Kaptur | DEM |
| Derek Merrin | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Turner | REP |
| Kristina Knickerbocker | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Shontel Brown | DEM |
| Mike Kirchner | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Balderson | REP |
| Jerrad Christian | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Emilia Sykes | DEM |
| Carey Coleman | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Joyce | REP |
| Maria Jukic | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Carey | REP |
| Don Leonard | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Tedford | REP |
| John Croisant | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Josh Brecheen | REP |
| Brandon Wade | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frank Lucas | REP |
| Suzie Byrd | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Cole | REP |
| Mitchell Jacob | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Stephanie Bice | REP |
| Jena Nelson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Suzanne Bonamici | DEM |
| Barbara Kahl | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Cliff Bentz | REP |
| Chris Beck | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maxine Dexter | DEM |
| Loran Ayles | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Val Hoyle | DEM |
| Monique DeSpain | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Janelle Bynum | DEM |
| Patti Adair | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Andrea Salinas | DEM |
| David Russ | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Harvie | DEM |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brendan Boyle | DEM |
| Jessica Arriaga | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Madeleine Dean | DEM |
| Aurora Stuski | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mary Gay Scanlon | DEM |
| Nicholas Manganaro | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chrissy Houlahan | DEM |
| Marty Young | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Bob Brooks | DEM |
| Ryan Mackenzie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Paige Cognetti | DEM |
| Rob Bresnahan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Dan Meuser | REP |
| Rachel Wallace | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Janelle Stelson | DEM |
| Scott Perry | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lloyd Smucker | REP |
| Nancy Mannion | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Summer Lee | DEM |
| James Hayes | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Joyce | REP |
| Beth Farnham | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Guy Reschenthaler | REP |
| Alan Bradstock | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Glenn Thompson | REP |
| Ray Bilger | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Kelly | REP |
| Justin Wagner | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Deluzio | DEM |
| Tony Guy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gabe Amo | DEM |
| Kellie Keenan | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Seth M. Magaziner | DEM |
| Victor Mellor | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt | REP |
| Nancy Lacore | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joe Wilson | REP |
| Zyon Khalifa | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sheri Biggs | REP |
| Eunice Lehmacher | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| William Timmons | REP |
| Courtney McClain | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Wes Climer | REP |
| Mallory Dittmer | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim Clyburn | DEM |
| John Peterson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Russell Fry | REP |
| John Vincent | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marty Jackley | REP |
| Nikki Gronli | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Diana Harshbarger | REP |
| Kristi Burke | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tim Burchett | REP |
| Michaela Barnett | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chuck Fleischmann | REP |
| Anna Golladay | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott DesJarlais | REP |
| Victoria Broderick | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Charlie Hatcher | REP |
| Chaz Molder | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Johnny Garrett | REP |
| Mike Croley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Matt Van Epps | REP |
| Darden Copeland | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| David Kustoff | REP |
| Heidi Kuhn | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brent Taylor | REP |
| Justin J. Pearson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Nathaniel Moran | REP |
| Yolanda Prince | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Steve Toth | REP |
| Shaun Finnie | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Keith Self | REP |
| Evan Hunt | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pat Fallon | REP |
| Jason Pearce | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lance Gooden | REP |
| Chelsey Hockett | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jake Ellzey | REP |
| Danny Minton | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lizzie Fletcher | DEM |
| Alexander Hale | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jessica Steinmann | REP |
| Laura Jones | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Alex Mealer | REP |
| Leticia Gutierrez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Gober | REP |
| Caitlin Rourk | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| August Pfluger | REP |
| Claire Reynolds | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Craig Goldman | REP |
| Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ronny Jackson | REP |
| Mark Nair | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Randy Weber | REP |
| Thurman Bartie | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Monica De La Cruz | REP |
| Bobby Pulido | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Veronica Escobar | DEM |
| Adam Bauman | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pete Sessions | REP |
| Casey Shepard | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Christian Menefee | DEM |
| Ronald Whitfield | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tom Sell | REP |
| Kyle Rable | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Joaquin Castro | DEM |
| Edgardo Baez | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Teixeira | REP |
| Kristin Hook | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Troy Nehls | REP |
| Marquette Greene-Scott | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brandon Herrera | REP |
| Katy Padilla Stout | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Beth Van Duyne | REP |
| Kevin Burge | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Roger Williams | REP |
| Dione Sims | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brandon Gill | REP |
| Steven Shook | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Cloud | REP |
| Tanya Lloyd | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tano Tijerina | REP |
| Henry Cuellar | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sylvia Garcia | DEM |
| Martha Fierro | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Frederick Haynes III | DEM |
| Everett Jackson | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John Carter | REP |
| Justin Early | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jace Yarbrough | REP |
| Dan Barrios | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Colin Allred | DEM |
| Patrick Gillespie | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Flores | REP |
| Vicente Gonzalez | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Carlos De La Cruz | REP |
| Johnny Garcia | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Brian Babin | REP |
| Rhonda Hart | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Greg Casar | DEM |
| Lauren Pena | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jon Bonck | REP |
| Melissa McDonough | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ben McAdams | DEM |
| Riley Owen | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Blake Moore | REP |
| Peter Crosby | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Celeste Maloy | REP |
| Kent Udell | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mike Kennedy | REP |
| Jonny Larsen | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Shannon Taylor | DEM |
| Rob Wittman | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Elaine Luria | DEM |
| Jen Kiggans | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Robert Scott | DEM |
| Edwin Rivera | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jennifer McClellan | DEM |
| Robert Murray | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| John McGuire | REP |
| Tom Perriello | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ben Cline | REP |
| Beth Macy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eugene Vindman | DEM |
| Doug Ollivant | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Don Beyer | DEM |
| Tony Sabio | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Morgan Griffith | REP |
| Joy Powers | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Suhas Subramanyam | DEM |
| Dave Beckwith | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| James Walkinshaw | DEM |
| Arthur Purves | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Becca Balint | DEM |
| Gerald Malloy | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Suzan DelBene | DEM |
| Mary Silva | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rick Larsen | DEM |
| Edwin H. Feller | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | DEM |
| John Braun | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Amanda McKinney | REP |
| John Duresky | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Baumgartner | REP |
| Carmela Conroy | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Emily Randall | DEM |
| Teresa Fox | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Pramila Jayapal | DEM |
| Nirav Sheth | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Kim Schrier | DEM |
| Spencer Meline | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Adam Smith | DEM |
| Doug Basler | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Marilyn Strickland | DEM |
| Chris D. Chung | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mitchell Berman | DEM |
| Bryan Steil | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rebecca Cooke | DEM |
| Derrick Van Orden | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Gwen Moore | DEM |
| Tim Rogers | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Scott Fitzgerald | REP |
| Andrew Beck | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Glenn Grothman | REP |
| Brad Smith | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Michael Alfonso | REP |
| Fred Clark | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Tony Wied | REP |
| Rick Crosson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Carol Miller | REP |
| Vince George | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Riley Moore | REP |
| Ace Parsi | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chuck Gray | REP |
| Lisa Kinney | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Yassamin Ansari | DEM |
| Alan Aversa | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Eric Jones | DEM |
| Mike Thompson | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Doris Matsui | DEM |
| Mai Vang | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Connie Chan | DEM |
| Scott Wiener | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Lateefah Simon | DEM |
| Jamie Joyce | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Melissa Hernandez | DEM |
| Aisha Wahab | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Luz Rivas | DEM |
| Angelica Maria Duenas | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jimmy Gomez | DEM |
| Angela Gonzales-Torres | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Sydney Kamlager-Dove | DEM |
| Samantha Mota | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Young Kim | REP |
| Ken Calvert | REP |
| Candidate | Party |
| Maxwell Frost | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Richard Neal | DEM |
| Nadia Milleron | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Jim McGovern | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Katherine Clark | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Ayanna Pressley | DEM |
| Candidate | Party |
| Rob Menendez | DEM |
| Aristotle Eliopoulos | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Chris Rabb | DEM |
| Dennis Mahoney | LIB |
| Candidate | Party |
| Mark Pocan | DEM |
| District | Margin | Probability | Rating |
| AK-AL | R +0.9 | 54.0% R | Leans R |
| AL-01 | R +24.9 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| AL-02 | R +4.5 | 72.7% R | Leans R |
| AL-03 | R +36.1 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| AL-04 | R +53.0 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| AL-05 | R +19.6 | 98.2% R | Safe R |
| AL-06 | R +22.5 | 98.5% R | Safe R |
| AL-07 | D +22.8 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| AR-01 | R +35.3 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| AR-02 | R +6.4 | 80.4% R | Likely R |
| AR-03 | R +15.1 | 96.2% R | Likely R |
| AR-04 | R +31.2 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| AZ-01 | D +4.9 | 74.0% D | Leans D |
| AZ-02 | R +4.5 | 71.9% R | Leans R |
| AZ-03 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| AZ-04 | D +15.1 | 94.9% D | Likely D |
| AZ-05 | R +10.0 | 90.2% R | Likely R |
| AZ-06 | D +7.7 | 81.8% D | Likely D |
| AZ-07 | D +23.2 | 99.2% D | Safe D |
| AZ-08 | R +5.6 | 75.2% R | Leans R |
| AZ-09 | R +20.6 | 98.3% R | Safe R |
| CA-01 | D +16.2 | 96.5% D | Likely D |
| CA-02 | D +28.9 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| CA-03 | D +14.4 | 95.0% D | Likely D |
| CA-04 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-04 | R +12.2 | 93.7% R | Likely R |
| CA-05 | D +12.7 | 93.1% D | Likely D |
| CA-07 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-08 | D +35.7 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| CA-09 | D +14.6 | 95.4% D | Likely D |
| CA-10 | D +34.9 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| CA-11 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-12 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-13 | D +4.3 | 72.9% D | Leans D |
| CA-14 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-15 | D +45.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-16 | D +49.2 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-17 | D +39.0 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-18 | D +27.1 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| CA-19 | D +37.7 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| CA-20 | R +21.5 | 98.5% R | Safe R |
| CA-21 | D +7.6 | 83.4% D | Likely D |
| CA-22 | R +0.7 | 51.3% R | Leans R |
| CA-23 | R +10.8 | 91.6% R | Likely R |
| CA-24 | D +27.9 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| CA-25 | D +11.2 | 90.5% D | Likely D |
| CA-26 | D +18.9 | 98.0% D | Likely D |
| CA-27 | D +11.9 | 92.4% D | Likely D |
| CA-28 | D +27.9 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| CA-29 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-30 | D +36.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-31 | D +11.9 | 92.4% D | Likely D |
| CA-32 | D +25.7 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| CA-33 | D +11.6 | 92.1% D | Likely D |
| CA-34 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-35 | D +8.7 | 86.1% D | Likely D |
| CA-36 | D +40.2 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-37 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| CA-38 | D +16.3 | 96.6% D | Likely D |
| CA-39 | D +10.8 | 90.7% D | Likely D |
| CA-40 | -- | 100% R | Safe R |
| CA-41 | D +14.2 | 95.3% D | Likely D |
| CA-42 | D +14.4 | 95.5% D | Likely D |
| CA-43 | D +46.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-44 | D +35.5 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-45 | D +5.5 | 76.6% D | Leans D |
| CA-46 | D +17.1 | 97.4% D | Likely D |
| CA-47 | D +13.0 | 93.8% D | Likely D |
| CA-48 | D +8.7 | 85.4% D | Likely D |
| CA-49 | D +16.3 | 96.6% D | Likely D |
| CA-50 | D +22.1 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-51 | D +22.4 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| CA-52 | D +19.3 | 98.2% D | Safe D |
| CO-01 | D +56.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CO-02 | D +45.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| CO-03 | D +1.8 | 57.7% D | Leans D |
| CO-04 | R +5.6 | 70.7% R | Leans R |
| CO-05 | D +2.1 | 59.5% D | Leans D |
| CO-06 | D +26.6 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| CO-07 | D +23.7 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| CO-08 | D +5.8 | 76.6% D | Leans D |
| CT-01 | D +25.9 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| CT-02 | D +19.4 | 97.3% D | Likely D |
| CT-03 | D +19.9 | 98.2% D | Safe D |
| CT-04 | D +25.7 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| CT-05 | D +10.7 | 89.6% D | Likely D |
| DE-AL | D +21.1 | 98.5% D | Safe D |
| FL-01 | R +24.6 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| FL-02 | R +8.1 | 85.8% R | Likely R |
| FL-03 | R +13.0 | 94.6% R | Likely R |
| FL-04 | R +3.1 | 65.8% R | Leans R |
| FL-05 | R +12.3 | 93.8% R | Likely R |
| FL-06 | R +19.5 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| FL-07 | R +2.6 | 63.3% R | Leans R |
| FL-08 | R +7.0 | 82.5% R | Likely R |
| FL-09 | R +10.2 | 90.5% R | Likely R |
| FL-10 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| FL-11 | R +5.8 | 78.3% R | Leans R |
| FL-12 | R +8.1 | 85.4% R | Likely R |
| FL-13 | R +3.0 | 65.2% R | Leans R |
| FL-14 | R +0.9 | 54.3% R | Leans R |
| FL-15 | R +12.0 | 93.5% R | Likely R |
| FL-16 | R +3.8 | 69.5% R | Leans R |
| FL-17 | R +14.4 | 96.0% R | Likely R |
| FL-18 | R +9.5 | 89.1% R | Likely R |
| FL-19 | R +19.7 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| FL-20 | D +35.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| FL-21 | R +10.1 | 89.9% R | Likely R |
| FL-22 | R +0.4 | 51.4% R | Leans R |
| FL-23 | D +15.8 | 96.5% D | Likely D |
| FL-24 | D +40.5 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| FL-25 | R +0.4 | 50.9% R | Leans R |
| FL-26 | R +22.7 | 96.5% R | Likely R |
| FL-27 | R +14.5 | 93.4% R | Likely R |
| FL-28 | R +30.3 | 98.6% R | Safe R |
| GA-01 | R +5.9 | 78.7% R | Leans R |
| GA-02 | D +15.0 | 95.0% D | Likely D |
| GA-03 | R +18.3 | 97.5% R | Likely R |
| GA-04 | D +53.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-05 | D +72.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-06 | D +53.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-07 | R +12.2 | 93.5% R | Likely R |
| GA-08 | R +21.2 | 98.5% R | Safe R |
| GA-09 | R +22.7 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| GA-10 | R +10.8 | 91.6% R | Likely R |
| GA-11 | R +13.3 | 94.7% R | Likely R |
| GA-12 | R +5.2 | 75.9% R | Leans R |
| GA-13 | D +48.8 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| GA-14 | R +23.2 | 95.8% R | Likely R |
| HI-01 | D +36.8 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| HI-02 | D +27.1 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| IA-01 | D +1.8 | 59.9% D | Leans D |
| IA-02 | D +0.2 | 50.1% D | Leans D |
| IA-03 | D +4.8 | 72.7% D | Leans D |
| IA-04 | R +20.8 | 98.4% R | Safe R |
| ID-01 | R +33.8 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| ID-02 | R +16.7 | 97.1% R | Likely R |
| IL-01 | D +31.6 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| IL-02 | D +35.3 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| IL-03 | D +32.5 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| IL-04 | D +27.7 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| IL-05 | D +41.0 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-06 | D +11.5 | 90.8% D | Likely D |
| IL-07 | D +62.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| IL-08 | D +11.5 | 91.3% D | Likely D |
| IL-09 | D +38.5 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| IL-10 | D +26.4 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| IL-11 | D +17.0 | 96.9% D | Likely D |
| IL-12 | R +32.3 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| IL-13 | D +19.2 | 97.5% D | Likely D |
| IL-14 | D +11.6 | 90.8% D | Likely D |
| IL-15 | R +27.5 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| IL-16 | R +13.8 | 95.3% R | Likely R |
| IL-17 | D +11.3 | 90.3% D | Likely D |
| IN-01 | D +6.8 | 79.7% D | Leans D |
| IN-02 | R +16.8 | 97.2% R | Likely R |
| IN-03 | R +20.2 | 98.2% R | Safe R |
| IN-04 | R +18.7 | 97.8% R | Likely R |
| IN-05 | R +6.3 | 79.6% R | Leans R |
| IN-06 | R +20.7 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| IN-07 | D +44.3 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| IN-08 | R +25.8 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| IN-09 | R +19.1 | 97.9% R | Likely R |
| KS-01 | R +20.9 | 98.4% R | Safe R |
| KS-02 | R +9.5 | 89.2% R | Likely R |
| KS-03 | D +17.8 | 96.2% D | Likely D |
| KS-04 | R +13.2 | 94.6% R | Likely R |
| KY-01 | R +35.7 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| KY-02 | R +30.5 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| KY-03 | D +26.7 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| KY-04 | R +24.5 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| KY-05 | R +49.7 | >99.9% R | Safe R |
| KY-06 | R +5.1 | 75.6% R | Leans R |
| LA-01 | R +27.0 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| LA-02 | D +53.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| LA-03 | R +27.7 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| LA-04 | R +23.3 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| LA-05 | R +23.1 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| LA-06 | R +19.5 | 98.1% R | Safe R |
| MA-01 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-02 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-03 | D +25.7 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| MA-04 | D +23.0 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| MA-05 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-06 | D +23.9 | 99.2% D | Safe D |
| MA-07 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| MA-08 | D +35.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| MA-09 | D +17.8 | 97.2% D | Likely D |
| MD-01 | R +6.2 | 77.9% R | Leans R |
| MD-02 | D +26.0 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| MD-03 | D +30.9 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| MD-04 | D +73.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MD-05 | D +35.5 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| MD-06 | D +13.6 | 93.4% D | Likely D |
| MD-07 | D +61.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MD-08 | D +57.9 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| ME-01 | D +29.2 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| ME-02 | D +0.7 | 54.9% D | Leans D |
| MI-01 | R +10.5 | 90.7% R | Likely R |
| MI-02 | R +19.4 | 98.0% R | Likely R |
| MI-03 | D +18.1 | 96.7% D | Likely D |
| MI-04 | D +3.0 | 67.3% D | Leans D |
| MI-05 | R +17.1 | 97.3% R | Likely R |
| MI-06 | D +30.5 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| MI-07 | D +8.2 | 82.8% D | Likely D |
| MI-08 | D +7.7 | 81.6% D | Likely D |
| MI-09 | R +21.3 | 98.5% R | Safe R |
| MI-10 | D +2.6 | 65.0% D | Leans D |
| MI-11 | D +19.7 | 98.3% D | Safe D |
| MI-12 | D +39.7 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| MI-13 | D +42.7 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| MN-01 | R +1.8 | 59.4% R | Leans R |
| MN-02 | D +10.7 | 89.7% D | Likely D |
| MN-03 | D +27.8 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| MN-04 | D +39.9 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| MN-05 | D +60.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MN-06 | R +9.7 | 89.6% R | Likely R |
| MN-07 | R +26.1 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| MN-08 | R +4.2 | 71.6% R | Leans R |
| MO-01 | D +59.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| MO-02 | D +2.3 | 62.1% D | Leans D |
| MO-03 | R +15.4 | 95.8% R | Likely R |
| MO-04 | R +30.6 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| MO-05 | D +28.4 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| MO-06 | R +27.5 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| MO-07 | R +30.4 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| MO-08 | R +41.1 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| MS-01 | R +27.7 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| MS-02 | D +23.6 | 99.1% D | Safe D |
| MS-03 | R +22.0 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| MS-04 | R +32.2 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| MT-01 | R +1.6 | 58.3% R | Leans R |
| MT-02 | R +19.4 | 98.0% R | Safe R |
| NC-01 | R +1.4 | 57.0% R | Leans R |
| NC-02 | D +38.1 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| NC-03 | R +4.0 | 70.4% R | Leans R |
| NC-04 | D +48.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NC-05 | R +8.5 | 86.9% R | Likely R |
| NC-06 | R +7.3 | 83.4% R | Likely R |
| NC-07 | R +4.1 | 71.0% R | Leans R |
| NC-08 | R +9.7 | 89.6% R | Likely R |
| NC-09 | R +6.3 | 80.0% R | Leans R |
| NC-10 | R +7.5 | 83.9% R | Likely R |
| NC-11 | D +0.3 | 52.7% D | Leans D |
| NC-12 | D +48.2 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NC-13 | R +6.7 | 81.7% R | Likely R |
| NC-14 | R +5.1 | 75.3% R | Leans R |
| ND-AL | R +26.2 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| NE-01 | R +3.0 | 65.5% R | Leans R |
| NE-02 | D +9.7 | 87.7% D | Likely D |
| NE-03 | R +42.5 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| NH-01 | D +7.6 | 82.4% D | Likely D |
| NH-02 | D +11.0 | 89.5% D | Likely D |
| NJ-01 | D +23.4 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| NJ-02 | R +4.7 | 73.1% R | Leans R |
| NJ-03 | D +12.8 | 93.2% D | Likely D |
| NJ-04 | R +21.5 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| NJ-05 | D +9.5 | 86.3% D | Likely D |
| NJ-06 | D +11.5 | 91.1% D | Likely D |
| NJ-07 | D +5.7 | 76.6% D | Leans D |
| NJ-08 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| NJ-09 | D +5.4 | 75.7% D | Leans D |
| NJ-10 | D +47.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NJ-11 | D +13.1 | 93.6% D | Likely D |
| NJ-12 | D +26.8 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| NM-01 | D +19.1 | 97.9% D | Likely D |
| NM-02 | D +5.2 | 75.2% D | Leans D |
| NM-03 | D +14.1 | 93.7% D | Likely D |
| NV-01 | D +8.5 | 84.4% D | Likely D |
| NV-02 | R +4.0 | 70.7% R | Leans R |
| NV-03 | D +5.9 | 77.0% D | Leans D |
| NV-04 | D +8.4 | 84.3% D | Likely D |
| NY-01 | R +0.8 | 53.1% R | Leans R |
| NY-02 | R +7.5 | 83.0% R | Likely R |
| NY-03 | D +3.9 | 70.9% D | Leans D |
| NY-04 | D +5.0 | 75.4% D | Leans D |
| NY-05 | D +40.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-06 | D +11.4 | 90.9% D | Likely D |
| NY-07 | D +47.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-08 | D +44.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-09 | D +40.9 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-10 | D +60.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-11 | R +18.3 | 98.0% R | Safe R |
| NY-12 | D +63.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-13 | D +59.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-14 | D +30.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| NY-15 | D +48.0 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-16 | D +37.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| NY-17 | D +4.4 | 73.5% D | Leans D |
| NY-18 | D +11.0 | 89.4% D | Likely D |
| NY-19 | D +8.1 | 83.4% D | Likely D |
| NY-20 | D +19.7 | 98.2% D | Safe D |
| NY-21 | R +10.7 | 91.4% R | Likely R |
| NY-22 | D +13.5 | 93.8% D | Likely D |
| NY-23 | R +13.2 | 94.9% R | Likely R |
| NY-24 | R +14.9 | 96.3% R | Likely R |
| NY-25 | D +22.5 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| NY-26 | D +26.9 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| OH-01 | D +6.7 | 78.8% D | Leans D |
| OH-02 | R +31.2 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| OH-03 | D +43.8 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| OH-04 | R +30.3 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| OH-05 | R +14.9 | 96.2% R | Likely R |
| OH-06 | R +26.1 | 99.3% R | Safe R |
| OH-07 | R +0.8 | 53.9% R | Leans R |
| OH-08 | R +5.6 | 77.4% R | Leans R |
| OH-09 | D +0.8 | 53.6% D | Leans D |
| OH-10 | R +2.7 | 62.3% R | Leans R |
| OH-11 | D +56.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| OH-12 | R +20.9 | 98.5% R | Safe R |
| OH-13 | D +11.2 | 89.7% D | Likely D |
| OH-14 | R +12.4 | 94.0% R | Likely R |
| OH-15 | R +0.3 | 50.7% R | Leans R |
| OK-01 | R +11.5 | 92.7% R | Likely R |
| OK-02 | R +42.1 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| OK-03 | R +33.4 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| OK-04 | R +22.0 | 98.6% R | Safe R |
| OK-05 | R +7.1 | 82.1% R | Likely R |
| OR-01 | D +42.6 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| OR-02 | R +17.7 | 97.6% R | Likely R |
| OR-03 | D +47.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| OR-04 | D +16.6 | 96.8% D | Likely D |
| OR-05 | D +13.3 | 93.8% D | Likely D |
| OR-06 | D +14.9 | 95.6% D | Likely D |
| PA-01 | D +3.6 | 69.9% D | Leans D |
| PA-02 | D +40.1 | 99.9% D | Safe D |
| PA-03 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| PA-04 | D +23.3 | 98.9% D | Safe D |
| PA-05 | D +32.9 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| PA-06 | D +18.8 | 97.6% D | Likely D |
| PA-07 | D +5.3 | 74.9% D | Leans D |
| PA-08 | D +2.4 | 60.9% D | Leans D |
| PA-09 | R +26.2 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| PA-10 | D +5.4 | 73.3% D | Leans D |
| PA-11 | R +10.7 | 91.1% R | Likely R |
| PA-12 | D +21.5 | 98.8% D | Safe D |
| PA-13 | R +33.8 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| PA-14 | R +22.5 | 98.7% R | Safe R |
| PA-15 | R +26.8 | 99.2% R | Safe R |
| PA-16 | R +12.2 | 93.3% R | Likely R |
| PA-17 | D +14.3 | 94.0% D | Likely D |
| RI-01 | D +28.8 | 99.5% D | Safe D |
| RI-02 | D +13.3 | 93.3% D | Likely D |
| SC-01 | R +3.1 | 66.1% R | Leans R |
| SC-02 | R +4.4 | 72.2% R | Leans R |
| SC-03 | R +33.7 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
| SC-04 | R +13.0 | 94.2% R | Likely R |
| SC-05 | R +12.7 | 94.1% R | Likely R |
| SC-06 | D +24.1 | 99.3% D | Safe D |
| SC-07 | R +18.2 | 97.9% R | Likely R |
| SD-AL | R +18.7 | 97.8% R | Likely R |
| TN-01 | R +44.5 | 99.9% R | Safe R |
| TN-02 | R +23.2 | 98.8% R | Safe R |
| TN-03 | R +24.8 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| TN-04 | R +14.0 | 95.4% R | Likely R |
| TN-05 | R +13.0 | 94.4% R | Likely R |
| TN-06 | R +16.3 | 96.8% R | Likely R |
| TN-07 | R +12.4 | 93.7% R | Likely R |
| TN-08 | R +11.9 | 93.3% R | Likely R |
| TN-09 | R +11.2 | 92.1% R | Likely R |
| TX-01 | R +38.1 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| TX-02 | R +12.8 | 94.2% R | Likely R |
| TX-03 | R +13.3 | 94.8% R | Likely R |
| TX-04 | R +15.1 | 96.3% R | Likely R |
| TX-05 | R +11.5 | 92.5% R | Likely R |
| TX-06 | R +12.7 | 94.0% R | Likely R |
| TX-07 | D +26.1 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| TX-08 | R +18.3 | 97.8% R | Likely R |
| TX-09 | R +9.9 | 89.9% R | Likely R |
| TX-10 | R +12.6 | 94.0% R | Likely R |
| TX-11 | R +23.5 | 98.9% R | Safe R |
| TX-12 | R +13.8 | 95.2% R | Likely R |
| TX-13 | R +33.7 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| TX-14 | R +16.0 | 96.9% R | Likely R |
| TX-15 | R +12.2 | 93.2% R | Likely R |
| TX-16 | D +16.1 | 96.7% D | Likely D |
| TX-17 | R +12.6 | 94.1% R | Likely R |
| TX-18 | D +55.6 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-19 | R +39.1 | 99.8% R | Safe R |
| TX-20 | D +36.2 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| TX-21 | R +11.2 | 91.8% R | Likely R |
| TX-22 | R +12.4 | 93.8% R | Likely R |
| TX-23 | R +4.9 | 74.8% R | Leans R |
| TX-24 | R +5.8 | 78.1% R | Leans R |
| TX-25 | R +14.0 | 95.3% R | Likely R |
| TX-26 | R +12.7 | 93.3% R | Likely R |
| TX-27 | R +13.0 | 94.6% R | Likely R |
| TX-28 | R +0.4 | 51.5% R | Leans R |
| TX-29 | D +31.9 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| TX-30 | D +48.3 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-31 | R +11.4 | 92.3% R | Likely R |
| TX-32 | R +7.9 | 85.2% R | Likely R |
| TX-33 | D +34.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| TX-34 | R +7.2 | 80.2% R | Likely R |
| TX-35 | R +0.6 | 52.4% R | Leans R |
| TX-36 | R +16.0 | 96.8% R | Likely R |
| TX-37 | D +57.2 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| TX-38 | R +10.5 | 90.8% R | Likely R |
| UT-01 | D +26.6 | 99.4% D | Safe D |
| UT-02 | R +22.3 | 99.0% R | Safe R |
| UT-03 | R +31.9 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| UT-04 | R +25.7 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| VA-01 | D +3.9 | 70.4% D | Leans D |
| VA-02 | D +6.8 | 79.7% D | Leans D |
| VA-03 | D +39.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| VA-04 | D +37.1 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| VA-05 | R +2.9 | 65.1% R | Leans R |
| VA-06 | R +14.0 | 95.4% R | Likely R |
| VA-07 | D +9.0 | 85.7% D | Likely D |
| VA-08 | D +50.1 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| VA-09 | R +32.3 | 99.6% R | Safe R |
| VA-10 | D +12.0 | 92.2% D | Likely D |
| VA-11 | D +36.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| VT-AL | D +37.4 | 99.8% D | Safe D |
| WA-01 | D +32.5 | 99.7% D | Safe D |
| WA-02 | D +30.4 | 99.6% D | Safe D |
| WA-03 | D +9.1 | 84.8% D | Likely D |
| WA-04 | R +10.7 | 91.4% R | Likely R |
| WA-05 | R +2.4 | 62.0% R | Leans R |
| WA-06 | D +23.9 | 99.1% D | Safe D |
| WA-07 | D +74.4 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| WA-08 | D +13.9 | 93.7% D | Likely D |
| WA-09 | D +45.5 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| WA-10 | D +23.6 | 99.0% D | Safe D |
| WI-01 | D +3.1 | 68.3% D | Leans D |
| WI-02 | -- | 100% D | Safe D |
| WI-03 | D +2.8 | 63.9% D | Leans D |
| WI-04 | D +54.7 | >99.9% D | Safe D |
| WI-05 | R +12.1 | 93.4% R | Likely R |
| WI-06 | R +7.7 | 84.7% R | Likely R |
| WI-07 | R +12.5 | 93.8% R | Likely R |
| WI-08 | R +5.8 | 77.6% R | Leans R |
| WV-01 | R +31.0 | 99.5% R | Safe R |
| WV-02 | R +28.2 | 99.4% R | Safe R |
| WY-AL | R +34.2 | 99.7% R | Safe R |
Find a bug or inconsistency? Feel free to shoot me an email!