2026 Election Forecast


| Senate | Governors | House | Results |

The House model for this year is the same as for 2024. This model held up reasonably well during the last election, and I'm hoping for a repeat this year.

The Democrats are hoping capture President Trump's historically high disapproval ratings to flip the House majority. The Republicans are counting on mid-cycle partisan redistricting to attempt to hold on to a few extra seats. The current polling environment favors the Democrats, but a GOP upset is well within the margin of error.

Top Level

Party Probability Expected Rated
Democrats 62.2% 231.0 225
Republicans 37.8% 204.0 210

Popular vote: Democrats +6.1

 

History

Date Popular
Vote
Probability Expected Rated
DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP
08/15 D +6.1 62.2% 37.8% 231.0 204.0 225 210

 

District-by-district breakdown

225 Democrats Republicans 210
 
132
62
31
40
97
73
|
218 to win
<< Back to all states
DistrictMarginProbabilityRating
AK-ALR +2.259.6% RLeans R
AL-01R +26.099.0% RSafe R
AL-02R +5.877.2% RLeans R
AL-03R +37.399.7% RSafe R
AL-04R +54.2>99.9% RSafe R
AL-05R +20.898.2% RSafe R
AL-06R +23.598.5% RSafe R
AL-07D +22.198.8% DSafe D
AR-01R +36.599.7% RSafe R
AR-02R +7.883.7% RLikely R
AR-03R +16.296.4% RLikely R
AR-04R +32.499.6% RSafe R
AZ-01D +3.869.2% DLeans D
AZ-02R +5.876.2% RLeans R
AZ-03--100% DSafe D
AZ-04D +14.494.5% DLikely D
AZ-05R +11.391.4% RLikely R
AZ-06D +6.879.3% DLeans D
AZ-07D +22.699.1% DSafe D
AZ-08R +6.878.7% RLeans R
AZ-09R +21.798.3% RSafe R
CA-01D +15.596.1% DLikely D
CA-02D +28.399.5% DSafe D
CA-03D +13.794.4% DLikely D
CA-04--100% DSafe D
CA-04R +13.594.4% RLikely R
CA-05D +12.092.2% DLikely D
CA-07--100% DSafe D
CA-08D +35.199.8% DSafe D
CA-09D +13.994.8% DLikely D
CA-10D +34.399.8% DSafe D
CA-11--100% DSafe D
CA-12--100% DSafe D
CA-13D +3.167.0% DLeans D
CA-14--100% DSafe D
CA-15D +44.4>99.9% DSafe D
CA-16D +48.6>99.9% DSafe D
CA-17D +38.599.9% DSafe D
CA-18D +26.599.6% DSafe D
CA-19D +37.099.8% DSafe D
CA-20R +22.698.5% RSafe R
CA-21D +6.579.4% DLeans D
CA-22R +2.358.2% RLeans R
CA-23R +12.192.7% RLikely R
CA-24D +27.399.5% DSafe D
CA-25D +10.489.3% DLikely D
CA-26D +18.397.7% DLikely D
CA-27D +11.291.2% DLikely D
CA-28D +27.399.5% DSafe D
CA-29--100% DSafe D
CA-30D +36.1>99.9% DSafe D
CA-31D +10.990.1% DLikely D
CA-32D +25.199.4% DSafe D
CA-33D +10.990.8% DLikely D
CA-34--100% DSafe D
CA-35D +7.682.5% DLikely D
CA-36D +39.699.8% DSafe D
CA-37--100% DSafe D
CA-38D +15.696.2% DLikely D
CA-39D +9.988.8% DLikely D
CA-40--100% RSafe R
CA-41D +13.594.3% DLikely D
CA-42D +13.794.7% DLikely D
CA-43D +45.5>99.9% DSafe D
CA-44D +35.099.8% DSafe D
CA-45D +4.371.2% DLeans D
CA-46D +16.597.0% DLikely D
CA-47D +12.392.9% DLikely D
CA-48D +7.883.0% DLikely D
CA-49D +15.696.1% DLikely D
CA-50D +21.598.7% DSafe D
CA-51D +21.798.7% DSafe D
CA-52D +18.798.0% DSafe D
CO-01D +56.0>99.9% DSafe D
CO-02D +45.399.9% DSafe D
CO-03D +0.551.8% DLeans D
CO-04R +6.974.4% RLeans R
CO-05D +0.953.6% DLeans D
CO-06D +26.099.3% DSafe D
CO-07D +23.098.9% DSafe D
CO-08D +4.872.7% DLeans D
CT-01D +25.399.3% DSafe D
CT-02D +18.897.3% DLikely D
CT-03D +19.298.0% DSafe D
CT-04D +25.199.3% DSafe D
CT-05D +9.988.1% DLikely D
DE-ALD +20.498.4% DSafe D
FL-01R +25.798.8% RSafe R
FL-02R +9.487.8% RLikely R
FL-03R +14.395.2% RLikely R
FL-04R +4.772.0% RLeans R
FL-05R +13.694.4% RLikely R
FL-06R +20.698.1% RSafe R
FL-07R +4.069.3% RLeans R
FL-08R +8.485.3% RLikely R
FL-09R +11.792.0% RLikely R
FL-10--100% DSafe D
FL-11R +7.181.7% RLikely R
FL-12R +9.788.0% RLikely R
FL-13R +4.370.7% RLeans R
FL-14R +2.461.5% RLeans R
FL-15R +13.494.3% RLikely R
FL-16R +5.274.5% RLeans R
FL-17R +15.896.4% RLikely R
FL-18R +11.090.8% RLikely R
FL-19R +20.898.1% RSafe R
FL-20D +35.099.9% DSafe D
FL-21R +11.791.4% RLikely R
FL-22R +1.858.6% RLeans R
FL-23D +15.296.1% DLikely D
FL-24D +39.999.8% DSafe D
FL-25R +1.958.6% RLeans R
FL-26R +24.296.7% RLikely R
FL-27R +16.193.9% RLikely R
FL-28R +31.698.6% RSafe R
GA-01R +7.282.1% RLikely R
GA-02D +14.294.5% DLikely D
GA-03R +19.497.6% RLikely R
GA-04D +53.4>99.9% DSafe D
GA-05D +71.5>99.9% DSafe D
GA-06D +52.8>99.9% DSafe D
GA-07R +13.494.1% RLikely R
GA-08R +22.498.6% RSafe R
GA-09R +23.898.8% RSafe R
GA-10R +12.092.5% RLikely R
GA-11R +14.495.1% RLikely R
GA-12R +6.780.2% RLikely R
GA-13D +48.3>99.9% DSafe D
GA-14R +24.195.8% RLikely R
HI-01D +36.299.7% DSafe D
HI-02D +26.599.4% DSafe D
IA-01D +0.452.8% DLeans D
IA-02R +1.557.2% RLeans R
IA-03D +3.767.7% DLeans D
IA-04R +21.998.4% RSafe R
ID-01R +35.099.6% RSafe R
ID-02R +17.897.2% RLikely R
IL-01D +31.099.8% DSafe D
IL-02D +34.799.8% DSafe D
IL-03D +32.099.7% DSafe D
IL-04D +27.299.6% DSafe D
IL-05D +40.499.8% DSafe D
IL-06D +10.789.6% DLikely D
IL-07D +61.8>99.9% DSafe D
IL-08D +10.890.1% DLikely D
IL-09D +37.999.8% DSafe D
IL-10D +25.899.3% DSafe D
IL-11D +16.396.6% DLikely D
IL-12R +33.499.6% RSafe R
IL-13D +18.597.4% DLikely D
IL-14D +10.889.7% DLikely D
IL-15R +28.699.3% RSafe R
IL-16R +15.095.7% RLikely R
IL-17D +10.589.1% DLikely D
IN-01D +5.976.4% DLeans D
IN-02R +18.097.3% RLikely R
IN-03R +21.398.3% RSafe R
IN-04R +19.897.9% RLikely R
IN-05R +7.682.5% RLikely R
IN-06R +21.798.1% RSafe R
IN-07D +43.799.9% DSafe D
IN-08R +26.999.1% RSafe R
IN-09R +20.298.0% RLikely R
KS-01R +22.098.4% RSafe R
KS-02R +10.890.5% RLikely R
KS-03D +17.296.3% DLikely D
KS-04R +14.495.1% RLikely R
KY-01R +36.899.7% RSafe R
KY-02R +31.699.5% RSafe R
KY-03D +26.199.3% DSafe D
KY-04R +25.699.0% RSafe R
KY-05R +50.8>99.9% RSafe R
KY-06R +6.579.5% RLeans R
LA-01R +28.199.2% RSafe R
LA-02D +52.8>99.9% DSafe D
LA-03R +29.099.4% RSafe R
LA-04R +24.498.8% RSafe R
LA-05R +24.298.8% RSafe R
LA-06R +20.698.1% RSafe R
MA-01--100% DSafe D
MA-02--100% DSafe D
MA-03D +25.099.2% DSafe D
MA-04D +22.498.9% DSafe D
MA-05--100% DSafe D
MA-06D +23.399.0% DSafe D
MA-07--100% DSafe D
MA-08D +34.899.7% DSafe D
MA-09D +17.096.9% DLikely D
MD-01R +7.480.9% RLikely R
MD-02D +25.499.2% DSafe D
MD-03D +30.399.6% DSafe D
MD-04D +72.5>99.9% DSafe D
MD-05D +34.999.8% DSafe D
MD-06D +12.992.8% DLikely D
MD-07D +61.3>99.9% DSafe D
MD-08D +57.4>99.9% DSafe D
ME-01D +28.699.5% DSafe D
ME-02R +0.752.5% RLeans R
MI-01R +11.791.6% RLikely R
MI-02R +20.598.0% RSafe R
MI-03D +17.496.6% DLikely D
MI-04D +1.961.1% DLeans D
MI-05R +18.297.3% RLikely R
MI-06D +29.999.6% DSafe D
MI-07D +7.380.7% DLikely D
MI-08D +6.979.3% DLeans D
MI-09R +22.498.5% RSafe R
MI-10D +1.458.5% DLeans D
MI-11D +19.098.0% DSafe D
MI-12D +39.299.8% DSafe D
MI-13D +42.199.9% DSafe D
MN-01R +3.265.7% RLeans R
MN-02D +9.888.2% DLikely D
MN-03D +27.199.4% DSafe D
MN-04D +39.399.8% DSafe D
MN-05D +59.9>99.9% DSafe D
MN-06R +10.990.8% RLikely R
MN-07R +27.299.2% RSafe R
MN-08R +5.676.1% RLeans R
MO-01D +59.3>99.9% DSafe D
MO-02R +2.260.4% RLeans R
MO-03R +10.488.8% RLikely R
MO-04R +12.593.0% RLikely R
MO-05R +8.885.5% RLikely R
MO-06R +17.597.0% RLikely R
MO-07R +31.599.5% RSafe R
MO-08R +42.099.8% RSafe R
MS-01R +28.999.4% RSafe R
MS-02D +22.999.0% DSafe D
MS-03R +23.398.9% RSafe R
MS-04R +33.399.6% RSafe R
MT-01R +3.064.9% RLeans R
MT-02R +20.598.1% RSafe R
NC-01R +2.863.7% RLeans R
NC-02D +37.499.8% DSafe D
NC-03R +5.475.4% RLeans R
NC-04D +47.5>99.9% DSafe D
NC-05R +9.888.8% RLikely R
NC-06R +8.685.8% RLikely R
NC-07R +5.575.9% RLeans R
NC-08R +10.990.9% RLikely R
NC-09R +7.683.2% RLikely R
NC-10R +8.786.1% RLikely R
NC-11R +1.154.7% RLeans R
NC-12D +47.6>99.9% DSafe D
NC-13R +8.184.5% RLikely R
NC-14R +6.479.2% RLeans R
ND-ALR +27.399.2% RSafe R
NE-01R +4.471.1% RLeans R
NE-02D +8.885.8% DLikely D
NE-03R +43.799.8% RSafe R
NH-01D +6.779.4% DLeans D
NH-02D +10.288.3% DLikely D
NJ-01D +22.798.9% DSafe D
NJ-02R +6.478.2% RLeans R
NJ-03D +12.192.3% DLikely D
NJ-04R +22.798.7% RSafe R
NJ-05D +8.784.6% DLikely D
NJ-06D +10.789.9% DLikely D
NJ-07D +4.772.3% DLeans D
NJ-08--100% DSafe D
NJ-09D +4.371.2% DLeans D
NJ-10D +47.1>99.9% DSafe D
NJ-11D +12.392.7% DLikely D
NJ-12D +26.299.4% DSafe D
NM-01D +18.497.7% DLikely D
NM-02D +4.270.6% DLeans D
NM-03D +13.493.2% DLikely D
NV-01D +7.682.0% DLikely D
NV-02R +5.475.5% RLeans R
NV-03D +4.972.9% DLeans D
NV-04D +7.581.8% DLikely D
NY-01R +2.260.5% RLeans R
NY-02R +9.186.1% RLikely R
NY-03D +2.865.5% DLeans D
NY-04D +3.970.1% DLeans D
NY-05D +40.0>99.9% DSafe D
NY-06D +10.689.7% DLikely D
NY-07D +46.6>99.9% DSafe D
NY-08D +43.699.9% DSafe D
NY-09D +40.499.9% DSafe D
NY-10D +60.1>99.9% DSafe D
NY-11R +19.798.0% RSafe R
NY-12D +63.1>99.9% DSafe D
NY-13D +59.0>99.9% DSafe D
NY-14D +29.899.8% DSafe D
NY-15D +47.4>99.9% DSafe D
NY-16D +36.899.8% DSafe D
NY-17D +3.367.8% DLeans D
NY-18D +10.288.2% DLikely D
NY-19D +7.280.8% DLikely D
NY-20D +19.098.0% DLikely D
NY-21R +11.992.3% RLikely R
NY-22D +12.893.1% DLikely D
NY-23R +14.695.4% RLikely R
NY-24R +16.396.6% RLikely R
NY-25D +21.898.8% DSafe D
NY-26D +26.399.3% DSafe D
OH-01D +5.775.6% DLeans D
OH-02R +32.499.5% RSafe R
OH-03D +43.299.9% DSafe D
OH-04R +31.499.5% RSafe R
OH-05R +16.196.5% RLikely R
OH-06R +27.499.3% RSafe R
OH-07R +2.260.9% RLeans R
OH-08R +6.981.0% RLikely R
OH-09R +0.552.5% RLeans R
OH-10R +4.469.0% RLeans R
OH-11D +55.9>99.9% DSafe D
OH-12R +22.198.5% RSafe R
OH-13D +10.488.6% DLikely D
OH-14R +13.894.7% RLikely R
OH-15R +1.758.0% RLeans R
OK-01R +12.793.4% RLikely R
OK-02R +43.299.8% RSafe R
OK-03R +34.599.6% RSafe R
OK-04R +23.198.6% RSafe R
OK-05R +8.384.5% RLikely R
OR-01D +42.099.9% DSafe D
OR-02R +18.897.6% RLikely R
OR-03D +46.8>99.9% DSafe D
OR-04D +15.996.4% DLikely D
OR-05D +12.693.0% DLikely D
OR-06D +14.295.0% DLikely D
PA-01D +2.463.4% DLeans D
PA-02D +39.599.8% DSafe D
PA-03--100% DSafe D
PA-04D +22.798.8% DSafe D
PA-05D +32.399.7% DSafe D
PA-06D +18.197.5% DLikely D
PA-07D +4.370.5% DLeans D
PA-08D +1.154.8% DLeans D
PA-09R +27.399.2% RSafe R
PA-10D +4.369.2% DLeans D
PA-11R +11.992.1% RLikely R
PA-12D +20.998.6% DSafe D
PA-13R +35.099.6% RSafe R
PA-14R +23.698.7% RSafe R
PA-15R +27.999.2% RSafe R
PA-16R +13.393.9% RLikely R
PA-17D +13.693.5% DLikely D
RI-01D +28.199.5% DSafe D
RI-02D +12.692.6% DLikely D
SC-01R +4.571.6% RLeans R
SC-02R +5.876.9% RLeans R
SC-03R +35.099.7% RSafe R
SC-04R +14.194.7% RLikely R
SC-05R +13.994.6% RLikely R
SC-06D +23.699.2% DSafe D
SC-07R +19.598.0% RSafe R
SD-ALR +19.897.9% RLikely R
TN-01R +45.699.9% RSafe R
TN-02R +24.398.8% RSafe R
TN-03R +25.999.0% RSafe R
TN-04R +15.295.7% RLikely R
TN-05R +14.294.9% RLikely R
TN-06R +17.497.0% RLikely R
TN-07R +13.694.3% RLikely R
TN-08R +13.394.1% RLikely R
TN-09R +12.492.9% RLikely R
TX-01R +39.299.8% RSafe R
TX-02R +14.094.7% RLikely R
TX-03R +14.595.2% RLikely R
TX-04R +16.396.5% RLikely R
TX-05R +12.793.3% RLikely R
TX-06R +13.894.5% RLikely R
TX-07D +25.599.3% DSafe D
TX-08R +19.497.8% RLikely R
TX-09R +11.191.1% RLikely R
TX-10R +13.894.5% RLikely R
TX-11R +24.698.9% RSafe R
TX-12R +15.095.6% RLikely R
TX-13R +34.899.6% RSafe R
TX-14R +17.397.2% RLikely R
TX-15R +13.794.0% RLikely R
TX-16D +15.496.0% DLikely D
TX-17R +13.894.6% RLikely R
TX-18D +55.0>99.9% DSafe D
TX-19R +40.399.8% RSafe R
TX-20D +35.699.8% DSafe D
TX-21R +12.492.7% RLikely R
TX-22R +13.694.4% RLikely R
TX-23R +6.378.8% RLeans R
TX-24R +7.181.5% RLikely R
TX-25R +15.195.6% RLikely R
TX-26R +13.993.8% RLikely R
TX-27R +14.395.2% RLikely R
TX-28R +1.858.6% RLeans R
TX-29D +31.499.7% DSafe D
TX-30D +47.8>99.9% DSafe D
TX-31R +12.693.1% RLikely R
TX-32R +9.287.3% RLikely R
TX-33D +33.899.7% DSafe D
TX-34R +8.983.6% RLikely R
TX-35R +2.059.5% RLeans R
TX-36R +17.297.0% RLikely R
TX-37D +56.6>99.9% DSafe D
TX-38R +11.791.8% RLikely R
UT-01D +26.099.3% DSafe D
UT-02R +23.799.0% RSafe R
UT-03R +33.199.6% RSafe R
UT-04R +27.199.4% RSafe R
VA-01D +2.864.9% DLeans D
VA-02D +5.976.4% DLeans D
VA-03D +38.899.8% DSafe D
VA-04D +36.599.8% DSafe D
VA-05R +4.471.1% RLeans R
VA-06R +15.195.7% RLikely R
VA-07D +8.183.5% DLikely D
VA-08D +49.6>99.9% DSafe D
VA-09R +33.499.6% RSafe R
VA-10D +11.291.2% DLikely D
VA-11D +35.899.8% DSafe D
VT-ALD +36.899.8% DSafe D
WA-01D +31.999.7% DSafe D
WA-02D +29.899.6% DSafe D
WA-03D +8.583.9% DLikely D
WA-04R +11.992.3% RLikely R
WA-05R +4.068.8% RLeans R
WA-06D +23.399.0% DSafe D
WA-07D +73.8>99.9% DSafe D
WA-08D +13.293.1% DLikely D
WA-09D +44.999.9% DSafe D
WA-10D +22.998.9% DSafe D
WI-01D +2.062.3% DLeans D
WI-02--100% DSafe D
WI-03D +1.557.5% DLeans D
WI-04D +54.1>99.9% DSafe D
WI-05R +13.394.0% RLikely R
WI-06R +9.287.2% RLikely R
WI-07R +13.694.4% RLikely R
WI-08R +7.080.8% RLikely R
WV-01R +32.199.5% RSafe R
WV-02R +29.399.3% RSafe R
WY-ALR +35.399.6% RSafe R

 

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