Election Results

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Past Results Portal

Here are some links to the results from past elections going back to 2000. Model results are added where applicable.

Live Stream

This page will serve as the live stream for all upcoming election results. Most of the time, this stream is dormant. See the calendar below for a schedule of when this stream will broadcast.

When this stream is broadcasting, it analyzes election results as they come in, and for major statewide non-primary elections, it also features a live estimate of the final election result.

The election analysis uses the following terminology:

• Likely means that based on exit polls, pre-election polling data, and initial reports, it is very likely that a candidate will win the race.
• Safe means that based on our model, it is almost certain that a candidate will win the election, or that a candidate will win unless there's an extremely unlikely shift in the results being reported and that absentee and preliminary ballots shift the election outcome.
• Called means that a major news organization, such as the AP, has called the election for a candidate.

In the color scheme, light represents 'likely', moderate represents 'high probability', and dark represents 'called'.

Calendar

The following calendar displays all future scheduled streams. All times EST/EDT.

Past Streams

Live Model Methodology

In terms of methodology, this model essentially guesses the final results of the election based on the geographic distribution of results that are reporting so far and the historical partisan lean of that region. Because it analyzes historical partisan lean, it only works on elections for which there are only two major candidates: one Democrat and one Republican. The model is fundamentally biased for historical results, so there's a reasonable margin of error of about a point or so. The margin of error is typically higher when:

• The pattern of voter turnout is substantially different from historical trends.
• A realigning election occurs.
• During special elections and off-year elections, when voter turnout tends to be abnormal.
• There is a lot of early vote reported that is not representative of the whole.
• There are still many mail-in, absentee, or preliminary ballots not counted.

An example of a substantially different turnout pattern that causes the model to be off is the Texas Senate election in 2018, when Beto O'Rourke's candidacy caused a surge in Democratic turnout, while Texas also reported a lot of early vote that favored O'Rourke.

This models are currently being run for statewide elections in all states with the exception of Alaska. The following map shows how accurately we anticipate the models to perform:

• States in green are the states that we expect the models to perform up to expectations. However, the models can be susceptible to outstanding absentee or preliminary ballots that are not reported until the very end.
• States in light green are the states that we expect the models to somewhat well or mostly well. These states tend to be:
  • Small states with very few jurisdictions, which makes it hard to analyze, such as Delaware.
  • States with a lot of early vote, which tends to throw off early reports, such as Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Texas.
  • States with a high percentage of votes in concentrated in very few jurisdictions, such as Illinois and New York.
  • States with substantial vote by mail, which can take time for votes to arrive, such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington.
• States in yellow are the states that we expect the models to be the most susceptible to inaccuracy. These states have substantial vote by mail and take days to weeks for votes to be received and counted, and the late-reporting votes tend to sway election results decisively.
• The state in red is Alaska, for which there is not a model.